Tourism Demand Forecasting Model
Before any tourism planning can be performed, a forecast based on a mathematical model of the number of guests expected over the short, medium and long terms is needed. This includes estimates of the numbers of people and days of vacation and the per capita consumption. The forecasts are divided into short-term (2–3 years), medium-term (3–5 years) and long-term (over 5 years) forecasts. Many mathematical formulas and models are available for tourism demand forecasting. Four types of models are often used: trend extrapolation models, structural models, simulation models and qualitative models.