Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting pp 1181-1185 | Cite as
Introduction to Ensemble Forecast Applications and Showcases
Hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting has gradually entered the offices of operational water managers changing forecasting practice across a wide range of applications. This section illustrates the range of applications available today, with the following showcases: Where in the world have hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) found practical application and are increasingly yielding added value in hazard mitigation? Can I anticipate flash floods? Can I anticipate and cope with floods? Do I really need to draw down my reservoir and make room for a flood that might not occur? Can I optimize the production of hydropower reservoir operations? Is there any chance that my municipality might be affected by critical water shortages in the coming weeks? What do we learn from the operation of a continental-scale prediction system addressing users in different countries? How does communication between forecast centers and end users work in real-life operations? These showcases illustrate some of the numerous HEPS that have been implemented around the world. We hope that the success stories and pitfalls discussed in these examples will inspire and support successful development of further new applications.
KeywordsEnsemble showcase Water management Hazard mitigation Flash floods Hydropower Forecast communication
- F. Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, L. Alfieri, H.L. Cloke, J. Thielen-del Pozo, S. Balabanova, J. Daňhelka, A. Vogelbacher, P. Salamon, I. Carrasco, A.J. Cabrera-Tordera, M. Corzo-Toscano, M. Garcia-Padilla, R.J. Garcia-Sanchez, C. Ardilouze, S. Jurela, B. Terek, A. Csik, J. Casey, G. Stankūnavičius, V. Ceres, E. Sprokkereef, J. Stam, E. Anghel, D. Vladikovic, C. Alionte Eklund, N. Hjerdt, H. Djerv, F. Holmberg, J. Nilsson, K. Nyström, M. Sušnik, M. Hazlinger, M. Holubecka, HESS opinions “forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 4389–4399 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- M. Zappa, M.W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dominger, C. Hegg, A. Montani, R. Ranzi, F. Ament, U. Germann, G. Grossi, S. Jaun, A. Rossa, S. Vogt, A. Walser, J. Werhan, C. Wunram, MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett. (2008). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.183. 8 ppCrossRefGoogle Scholar