Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting pp 1093-1108 | Cite as
Best Practice in Communicating Uncertainties in Flood Management in the USA
Ensemble forecasting has gained a great deal of popularity for addressing and estimating uncertainty associated with both meteorologic and hydrologic forecasts over the past decade. While ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been in routine operations for longer-term forecasts for many years, the notion of short- and medium-term probabilistic forecasts in support of water and flood management efforts is relatively new and is a developing science and service. Approaches to effectively conveying and communicating hydrologic forecast uncertainty are being actively developed and vetted with potential user communities. Important experience and insight will be gained over the next few years as the community of developers, forecasters, and end users work to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a risk-based decision environment. With proper focus and support, these efforts have the potential to significantly improve flood, ecosystems, and water management with benefits to multiple sectors of our society.
KeywordsEnsemble Communication Probability Risk Uncertainty Hydrology Water resources Hindcasting
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