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Attributes of Forecast Quality

  • A. Allen BradleyEmail author
  • Julie DemargneEmail author
  • Kristie J. FranzEmail author
Reference work entry

Abstract

Forecast verification is a process used to assess the quality of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. This chapter describes the many aspects of forecast quality using a distributions-oriented approach. Using the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, or one of its factorizations into a conditional and marginal distribution, the aspects of forecast quality are defined. Hypothetical ensemble forecasts are then used to illustrate aspects of forecast quality. The hypothetical ensemble forecasts are used to construct single-valued forecasts, probability forecasts for an event, and ensemble probability distribution forecasts. Their forecast quality is then diagnosed using visual comparisons and numerical comparisons of forecast quality measures. The examples illustrate that a single aspect of forecast quality is insufficient and that many aspects are needed to understand the nature of the forecasts. Some practical considerations in the application of the framework to ensemble forecast verification are discussed.

Keywords

Forecast verification Ensemble forecasts Deterministic forecasts Probabilistic forecasts Distributions-oriented approach 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.IIHR–Hydroscience and EngineeringThe University of IowaIowa CityUSA
  2. 2.HYDRIS HydrologieSaint Mathieu de TréviersFrance
  3. 3.Department of Geological and Atmospheric SciencesIowa State UniversityAmesUSA

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