Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering pp 3004–3022Cite as

Seismic Risk Assessment, Cascading Effects

  • Reference work entry
  • First Online:

  • 164 Accesses

Synonyms

Domino effects; Short-term hazard and risk assessment; Time-dependent risk; Triggering effects

Introduction

Risk is conveniently assessed as a function of the probability that a certain event will occur and of the extent of the damage caused to humans, environment, and objects. Conceptually, it is the result of the operation

$$ \mathrm{Risk}=\mathrm{Hazard}\times \mathrm{Damage}=\mathrm{Hazard}\times \mathrm{Vunerability}\times \mathrm{Value}\;\mathrm{at}\;\mathrm{Risk} $$
(1)

where the Hazard can be understood as the probability that a given adverse event of a given intensity (hereinafter referred to as intensity measure, IM) will occur in a certain area within a defined time interval; the Vulnerability, a concept interpreted and applied in various ways, here is considered in its physical dimension as the probable damage to an element at risk given a level of intensity (IM) of the hazard; and the Value at Riskterm is considered as a measure of the total potential loss due...

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   1,799.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   2,999.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Barrientos SE (1994) Large thrust earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Pure Appl Geophys 142(1):225–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bautista BC, Bautista MLP, Stein RS, Barcelona ES, Punongbayan RS, Laguerta EP, Rasdas AR, Ambubuyog G, Amin EQ (1996) Relationship of regional and local structures to Mount Pinatubo activity. In: Fire and mud; eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology/University of Washington Press United States, Quezon City/Philippines

    Google Scholar 

  • Bazzurro P, Cornell CA, Menun C, Motahari M (2004) Guidelines for seismic assessment of damaged buildings. In: Proceedings of the 13th world conference on earthquake engineering, Vancouver

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen XL, Zhou Q, Ran H, Dong R (2012) Earthquake-triggered landslides in southwest China. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:351–363. doi:10.5194/nhess-12-351-2012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell CA, Krawinkler H (2000) Progress and challenges in seismic performance assessment. PEER Center News 3(2), URL http://peer.berkeley.edu/news/2000spring/index.html

  • Eggert S, Walter TR (2009) Volcanic activity before and after large tectonic earthquakes: observations and statistical significance. Tectonophysics 471:14–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garcia-Aristizabal A, Marzocchi W, Di Ruocco A (2013) Probabilistic framework for multi-hazard assessment. Technical report D3.4, MATRIX project (New methodologies for multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe), grant no. 265138. URL http://matrix.gpi.kit.edu/Deliverables.php

  • Garcia-Aristizabal A, Gasparini P, Uhinga G (forthcoming-2015) Multi-risk assessment as a tool for decision-making. In: Pauleit S, Jorgensen G, Kabisch S, Gasparini P, Fohlmeister S, Simonis I, Yeshitela K, Coly A, Lindley S, Kombe WJ (eds) Future Cities, vol 4 Climate change and urban vulnerability in Africa: a multidisciplinary approach. Springer Netherlands, ISBN 978-3-319- 03984-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Gasparini P (2013) The physics of volcanoes since the 1960s. Rivista Nuovo Cimento 36:461–500. doi:10.1393/ncr/i2013-10093-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Haimes Y (2009) Risk modeling, assessment, and management, 3rd edn. Wiley, Hoboken

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Harris RA (1998) Introduction to a special section: stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazards. J Geophys Res 103:24,347–24,358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill DP, Pollitz F, Newhall C (2002) Earthquake-volcano interactions. Physics Today 55(11):41–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Jibson RW (2011) Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes – a retrospective. Eng Geol 122:43–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jibson RW, Harp EL, Michael JA (2000) A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps. Eng Geol 58(3–4):271–289. doi:10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00039-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keefer DK (2002) Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes – a historical review. Surv Geophys 23:473–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khazai B, Daniell JE, Wenzel F (2011) The March 2011 Japan earthquake: analysis of losses, impacts, and implications for the understanding of risks posed by extreme events. TECHNIKFOLGENABSCHÄTZUNG, Theorie und Praxis. N3, 20 Dec 2011. S. 22–33. http://www.itas.fzk.de/tatup/113/khua11a.htm

  • Kraussmann E, Renni E, Campedel M, Cozzani V (2011) Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9754-3

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee KH, Rosowsky DV (2006) Fragility analysis of woodframe buildings considering combined snow and earthquake loading. Struct Saf 28(3):289–303. doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2005.08.002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linde AT, Sacks IS (1998) Triggering of volcanic eruptions. Nature 395:888–890. doi:10.1038/27650

    Google Scholar 

  • Luco N, Gerstenberger MC, Uma SR, Ryu H, Liel AB, Raghunandan M (2011) A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk. In: Proceedings of the ninth pacific conference on earthquake engineering building an earthquake-resilient society, Auckland

    Google Scholar 

  • Manga M, Brodsky E (2006) Seismic Triggering of Eruptions in the Far Field: Volcanoes and Geysers. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 34:263–291. doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.34.031405.125125

    Google Scholar 

  • Marsan D, Lengliné O (2008) Extending earthquakes’ reach through cascading. Science 319(5866):1076–1079. doi:10.1126/science.1148783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Garcia-Aristizabal A, Gasparini P, Mastellone ML, Di Ruocco A (2012) Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy. Nat Hazards 62(2):551–573. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0092-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miles SB, Ho CL (1999) Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng 18:305–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mori N, Takahashi T, Yasuda T, Yanagisawa H (2011) Survey of 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run-up. Geophys Res Lett 38:L00G14. doi:10.1029/2011GL049210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newmark NM (1965) Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments. Geotechnique 15(2):139–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nostro C, Stein RS, Cocco M, Belardinelli ME, Marzocchi W (1998) Two-way coupling between Vesuvius eruptions and southern Apennine earthquakes, Italy, by elastic stress transfer. J Geophys Res B Solid Earth 103(B10):24487–24504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogata Y (1988) Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J Am Stat Assoc 83:9–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogata Y (1998) Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Ann Inst Stat Math 50:379–402

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Plafker G, Ericksen GE, Concha JF (1971) Geological aspects of the 31 May 1970, Peru earthquake. Bull Seis Soc Am 61:543–578

    Google Scholar 

  • Rasmussen K (1995) Natural events and accidents with hazardous materials. J Hazard Mater 40:43–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Refice A, Capolongo D (2002) Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment. Comput Geosci 28(6):735–749. doi:10.1016/S0098-3004(01)00104-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ryu H, Luco N, Uma SR, Liel AB (2011) Developing fragilities for mainshock-damaged structures through incremental dynamic analysis. In: Proceedings of the ninth pacific conference on earthquake engineering building an earthquake-resilient society, Auckland

    Google Scholar 

  • Selva J (2013) Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks. Nat Hazards 67(2):701–722

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vere-Jones D, Davies RB (1966) A statistical survey of earthquakes in the main seismic region of New Zealand. N Z J Geol Geophys 9(3):251–284. doi:10.1080/00288306.1966.10422815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walter TR (2007) How a tectonic earthquake may wake up volcanoes: stress transfer during the 1996 earthquake–eruption sequence at the Karymsky Volcanic Group, Kamchatka. Earth Planet Sci Lett 264(3–4):347–359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeo GL, Cornell CA (2005) Stochastic characterization and decision based under time-dependent aftershock risk in performance-based earthquake engineering. Technical report 2005/13. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zuccaro G, Cacace F, Spence R, Baxter P (2008) Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 178(3):416–453

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Via Nuova Agnano 11, 80125, Naples, Italy

    Paolo Gasparini & Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal

Authors
  1. Paolo Gasparini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Computer Science in Civil Engineering, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, University Hannover, Hannover, Germany

    Michael Beer

  2. Department of Civil Engineering & Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Ioannis A. Kougioumtzoglou

  3. Institute for Risk & Uncertainty and Centre for Engineering Sustainability, Liverpool, UK

    Edoardo Patelli

  4. Institute for Risk & Uncertainty and Centre for Engineering Dynamics, Liverpool, UK

    Siu-Kui Au

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this entry

Cite this entry

Gasparini, P., Garcia-Aristizabal, A. (2015). Seismic Risk Assessment, Cascading Effects. In: Beer, M., Kougioumtzoglou, I.A., Patelli, E., Au, SK. (eds) Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_260

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation