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Tsunami Forecasting and Warning

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Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science

Definition of the Subject

Tsunami is, along with strong motion, one of the two major disasters caused by earthquake. To mitigate tsunami disaster, it is important to integrate software countermeasures like tsunami forecast to enable timely evacuation from area at risk before tsunami strikes the coast, as well as to intensify hardware countermeasures particularly in vulnerable coastal areas like building banks and water gates. Tsunami disaster mitigation can be achieved effectively by the appropriate combination of the software and hardware countermeasures. Also, improving people’s awareness on the tsunami disaster, necessity of spontaneous evacuation when they notice an imminent threat of tsunami on their own (feeling strong shaking near the coast, seeing abnormal sea level change, etc) and how to respond to the tsunami forecast, and conducting tsunami evacuation drill are very important issues for disaster mitigation.

In this article, the tsunami forecast, as the most typical software...

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Abbreviations

Centroid Moment Tensor solution:

One of the representation of seismic source process. It is represented by the moment tensor, which is a combination of six independent equivalent force couples, and is a weighted average of the source process in time and space. Since it represents an overall image of the source process, it is suitable to evaluate tsunamigenic potential of the earthquake.

Earthquake early warning:

Earthquake early warning is to enable countermeasures in advance for strong motion disaster by detecting seismic P wave at stations near the epicenter, quickly estimate seismic intensity and arrival time of S wave, and transmit these estimations before the S-wave arrival. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started to provide EEW to the general public in October 2007. This technique is applicable to quicken tsunami warning dissemination.

Forecast point:

In this article, it is defined as the location of the offshore point where tsunami amplitude is evaluated by using numerical tsunami propagation simulation.

Intergovernmental Coordination Group:

The group established under UNESCO/IOC to facilitate international cooperation for the tsunami disaster mitigation. There are four ICGs as of now (Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea). One of the most important characteristics of tsunami is that it can cause huge disaster even after long-distance propagation due to amplification near the coast. Therefore, international cooperation, especially the prompt data and information exchange, is essential for the disaster mitigation.

Simulation point:

In this article, it is defined as the surface projection location of the hypothetical earthquake fault center. The vertical component of ocean bottom deformation due to earthquake fault dislocation calculated by elastic theory gives the initial tsunami waveform for the numerical tsunami propagation simulation.

Tsunami amplitude:

Amplitude is measured from undisturbed sea level to peak or trough of the wave. By definition, it can be positive or negative. Tsunami amplitude can be measured in real time by instruments like tide gauge, pressure sensor, etc. and can be reproduced by numerical tsunami propagation simulation. One need not be confused with the term “run-up height.” It is the maximum height of inundation on land and measured in post-tsunami field surveys from traces of tsunami (i.e., damage of constructions, vegetative markers, etc.).

Tsunami Early Warning System:

It consists of four components, namely, (1) seismic network, (2) seismic data processing system, (3) tsunami forecast system, and (4) sea level data monitoring system. In a broader sense, warning transmission system (downlink to disaster management organizations and public) is also included.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Dr. Peter Bormann and Dr. Kenji Satake for reviewing the manuscript, and their comments and suggestions greatly improved it.

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  1. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

    Osamu Kamigaichi

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  1. Osamu Kamigaichi
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Correspondence to Osamu Kamigaichi .

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  1. Ramtech Ltd., Larkspur, California, USA

    Robert A. Meyers

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Kamigaichi, O. (2015). Tsunami Forecasting and Warning. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_568-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_568-3

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