INTRODUCTION
The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation from studies on decision making that began in 1948. The seminal work, “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” was written by Dalkey and Helmer (1963).
The primary rationale for the technique is the age-old adage “two heads are better than one,” particularly when the issue is one where exact knowledge is not available. It was developed as an alternative to the traditional method of obtaining group opinions — face-to-face discussions. Experimental studies had demonstrated several serious difficulties with such discussions. Among them were: (1) influence of the dominant individual (the group is highly influenced by the person who talks the most or has most authority); (2) noise (studies found that much “communication” in such groups had to do with individual and group interests rather than problem solving); and (3) group pressure for conformity (studies demonstrated the distortions of...
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References
Dalkey, N. and Helmer, O. (1963). “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” Management Science, 9, 458–467.
Gustafson, D.H., Shukla, R.K., Delbecq, A., and Walster, G. W. (1973). “A Comparison Study of Differences in Subjective Likelihood Estimates Made by Individuals, Interacting Groups, Delphi Groups, and Nominal Groups,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 280–291.
Rowe, G., Wright, G., and Bolger F. (1991). “Delphi: A Reevaluation of Research and Theory,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39, 235–251.
Sackman, H. (1975). Delphi Critique, Lexington Books, Massachusetts.
Woudenberg, F. (1991). “An Evaluation of Delphi,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 40, 131–150.
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© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Dewar, J.A., Friel, J.A. (2001). Delphi method . In: Gass, S.I., Harris, C.M. (eds) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-X_229
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-X_229
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