Advertisement

Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

  • Qingyun Duan
  • Florian Pappenberger
  • Andy Wood
  • Hannah L. Cloke
  • John C. Schaake
Reference work

Table of contents

  1. Ensemble Forecast Application and Showcases

    1. Jutta Thielen-del Pozo, Peter Salamon, Peter Burek, Florian Pappenberger, C. Alionte Eklund, Eric Sprokkereef et al.
      Pages 1261-1277
    2. Eric F. Wood, Xing Yuan, Joshua K. Roundy, Ming Pan, Lifeng Luo
      Pages 1279-1287
    3. Marie-Amélie Boucher, Maria-Helena Ramos
      Pages 1289-1306
    4. Carlos E. M. Tucci, Walter Collischonn, Fernando Mainardi Fan, Dirk Schwanenberg
      Pages 1307-1328
    5. James Porter, Gerald Day, John C. Schaake, Lucien Wang
      Pages 1329-1370
    6. Dennis Meißner, Bastian Klein
      Pages 1371-1384
    7. A. Mueller, C. Baugh, P. Bates, Florian Pappenberger
      Pages 1385-1398
    8. Caroline Wittwer, C. de Saint-Aubin, C. Ardilouze
      Pages 1399-1411
    9. Guangsheng Wang, Zhijie Yin, Jianqing Yang, Yuhong Yan
      Pages 1413-1426
  2. Mathematical and Statistical Fundamentals for Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

    1. Front Matter
      Pages 1427-1427
    2. Zengchao Hao, Vijay P. Singh, Wei Gong
      Pages 1429-1462
  3. Back Matter
    Pages 1513-1528

About this book

Introduction

Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc. at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers make risk-based decisions. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring.

 

Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting” is mainly contributed by the group of experts from HEPEX as a central reference work from this field.

 

The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecasts that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications. This book not only covers the theoretical and methodological aspects involved in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting, but also presents a large number of successful application showcases. It should serves as an excellent reference book for researchers and practitioners in hydrometeorological forecasting.

Keywords

Ensemble Methods Floods and Droughts Hydrometeorological Forecasting Statistical pre-processing and Post-processing Water and Emergency Management

Editors and affiliations

  • Qingyun Duan
    • 1
  • Florian Pappenberger
    • 2
  • Andy Wood
    • 3
  • Hannah L. Cloke
    • 4
  • John C. Schaake
    • 5
  1. 1.Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWFReadingUK
  3. 3.National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderUSA
  4. 4.Department of MeteorologyReading UniversityReadingUK
  5. 5.U.S. National Weather Service (retired)AnnapolisUSA

Bibliographic information