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Time Series Modeling of Methane Gas in Underground Mines

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Abstract

Methane gas is emitted during both underground and surface coal mining. Underground coal mines need to monitor methane gas emissions to ensure adequate ventilation is provided to guarantee that methane concentrations remain low under different production and environmental conditions. Prediction of methane concentrations in underground mines can also contribute towards the successful management of methane gas emissions. The main objective of this research is to develop a forecasting methodology for methane gas emissions based on time series analysis. Methane time series data were retrieved from atmospheric monitoring systems (AMS) of three underground coal mines in the USA. The AMS data were stored and pre-processed using an Atmospheric Monitoring Analysis and Database Management system. Furthermore, different statistical dependence measures such as cross-correlation, autocorrelation, cross-covariance, and variograms were implemented to investigate the potential autocorrelations of methane gas as well as its association with auxiliary variables (barometric pressure and coal production). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model which is based on auto-correlations of the methane gas is investigated. It is established that ARIMA used in the one-step-ahead forecasting mode provides accurate estimates that match the direction (increase/decrease) of the methane gas emission data.

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Funding

This study was sponsored by the Alpha Foundation for the Improvement of Mine Safety and Health, Inc. (ALPHA FOUNDATION), contract number AFCTG20-103.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA

    Juan Diaz, Zach Agioutantis & Steven Schafrik

  2. Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete, Greece

    Dionissios T. Hristopulos

  3. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Kray Luxbacher

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  1. Juan Diaz
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  4. Steven Schafrik
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  5. Kray Luxbacher
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Contributions

Supervision, Z.A.; writing—original draft, J.D.; writing—review and editing, Z.A., D.H, S.S, KL. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Juan Diaz.

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Diaz, J., Agioutantis, Z., Hristopulos, D.T. et al. Time Series Modeling of Methane Gas in Underground Mines. Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration 39, 1961–1982 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42461-022-00654-5

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