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The impact of an ageing population on the required hospital capacity: results from forecast analysis on administrative data

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Key summary points

AbstractSection Aim

Evaluate the impact of population ageing on the required hospital capacity.

AbstractSection Findings

As the general population is ageing, the hospital population is also ageing. Additional capacity needs can initially be counterbalanced by reductions in length of stay. Population ageing starts to peak from 2030 with additional hospital capacity needs: inpatient days (+ 21.9%) and hospital beds (+ 21.1%).

AbstractSection Message

Investments in hospital alternatives as well as in geriatric expertise within hospitals are required to deal with the ageing population.

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, we evaluate the impact of population ageing on the required hospital capacity.

Methods

We used hospital discharge (years 2003–2014) and population data to estimate the required hospital capacity by 2025 for older inpatients (≥ 75 years) taking into account population changes and trends in hospital admission rates and length of stay. In addition, we developed an alternative scenario to evaluate the impact of accelerated ageing based on the peaks in population ageing from 2030 onwards.

Results

The number of inpatient stays for our study population is expected to increase from 478,027 in 2014 to 590,313 in 2025 (+ 23.5%). The average length of stay is expected to decrease by 18.4% (− 2.3 days). As a consequence, the number of inpatient days and the required bed capacity will only increase by 42,709 days (+ 0.7%) and 72 beds (+ 0.4%), respectively. The accelerated ageing scenario shows that the increase between 2014 and 2025 is more pronounced for inpatient stays (+ 50.5%), inpatient days (+ 21.9%) and hospital beds (+ 21.1%).

Conclusions

Ageing will, if no drastic policy actions are taken, impact the required hospital capacity. This can initially (by 2025) be more or less controlled by further reductions in length of stay. From 2030, it is expected that the required hospital bed capacity will increase exponentially with a pronounced shift between general acute care beds towards geriatric and chronic care beds. If policy makers want to revert this trend, substantial investments in hospital alternatives will be required.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Dr. Ingrid Mertens (Ministry of Health), Julien Regnart (Ministry of Health) and Stephan Devriese (KCE) for their help during the data handling process.

Funding

This study was funded by the Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre (KCE). The KCE is a federal institution which is financed by the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance (NIHDI, RIZIV—INAMI), the Federal Public Service of health, food chain safety and environment, and the Federal Public Service of social security. The development of health services research studies is part of the legal mission of the KCE. Although the development of the studies is paid by the KCE budget, the sole mission of the KCE is providing scientifically valid information.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre (KCE), Doorbuilding, Kruidtuinlaan 55, 10th Floor, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Koen Van den Heede, Nicolas Bouckaert & Carine Van de Voorde

Authors
  1. Koen Van den Heede
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  2. Nicolas Bouckaert
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  3. Carine Van de Voorde
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Koen Van den Heede.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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For this type of study (use of anonymized administrative data), formal consent is not required.

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Van den Heede, K., Bouckaert, N. & Van de Voorde, C. The impact of an ageing population on the required hospital capacity: results from forecast analysis on administrative data. Eur Geriatr Med 10, 697–705 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-019-00219-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-019-00219-8

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