Abstract
Volcanic hazards pose a potential threat to 8% of the world’s population, yet the economic literature on their short- and long-term consequences on household behavior and economic development is still in its infancy. In this article, we present the state of the literature and highlight knowledge gaps and methodological challenges inherent to the economic analysis of volcanic hazards and disasters. We first present the physical aspects of volcanic activity and describe available physical data. We then examine the concepts related to cost assessment of volcanic disasters. Finally, we discuss key micro and macroeconomic research questions economists should investigate and identify relevant methodological and data challenges. By highlighting research gaps in the “economics of volcanoes”, we provide future avenues of research that will address policy-relevant debates in the context of greater focus on risk mitigation, adaptation, and resilience policies aimed at mitigating natural hazards and disasters.
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Notes
The first figure is based on the population living within 100 km of a volcano with at least one significant eruption, the second is based on the population living within 100 km of a volcano that has erupted during the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years to present). The 100 km radius represents a zone that can potentially suffer direct damages from a volcanic hazard (Freire et al. 2019).
See, for instance, the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull explosive eruption that had global impacts on air traffic (Sigmundsson et al. 2010).
https://www.undrr.org/terminology (last consulted on 15/04/2020).
https://volcano.si.edu/list_volcano_holocene.cfm (last consulted on 30/12/2019); https://volcano.si.edu/search_eruption.cfm (last consulted on 30/12/2019).
This index indicates eruptions rated at VEI 1 produce between 0.0001 and 0.001 cubic kilometres of tephra ejected. Each step in the scale represents an explosivity increase of tenfold. As far as duration is concerned, the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program reports eruptions lasting from a few days to several years.
It can also be argued that volcanic eruptions provide fairly exogenous variation in air quality when it is possible to leverage time series data at a fairly high frequency. For instance, Halliday et al. (2019) use volcanic smog events as an exogenous source of air pollution to estimate the heath costs of particulates in Hawai’i.
DesInventar is a database comparable to EM-DAT but mainly covers Latin American countries and, to a lesser extent, Asian and African countries. For an exhaustive comparison of Desinventar and EM-DAT, see De Groeve et al. (2013).
Note that the final fatality figures in EM-DAT may be updated even long after the disaster has occurred.
Halliday et al. (2019) explored variation in air quality generated by volcanic eruptions of the Kilauea in the state of Hawaii. They identified a strong correlation between volcanic emissions and air quality, and their analysis suggests that a one standard deviation in particulate pollution led to an increase of 23% to 36% in expenditures for emergency room visits caused by pulmonary outcomes. One illustration of non-market direct loss assessment is the valuation of economic services from forests that were destroyed by the 2018 eruption of the Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala (WB/ECLAC/PNUD 2018).
There can be significant heterogeneity in the intensity and duration of volcanic events, which may evolve over time. For instance, ash falls entail a cost in the aftermath of an event, but they can increase soil fertility in the long term (Lansing et al. 2001).
Investing in disaster preparedness is critical. In some settings, lack of information, miscalculation of risks as well as liquidity constraints may cause underinvestment in disaster preparedness which ultimately has significant impacts on human capital and recovery. In the long run, this means that it will be more costly for affected households to recover, both in terms of human and physical capital. Put differently, as households base their investment decisions on their past experiences and on the information they receive from formal and informal networks, miscalculation of risks combined with liquidity constraints increase the lack of preparedness (See Barclay et al. 2019 and Few et al. 2017, for examples for the case of volcanic disasters).
Events that caused 1,000 or more injured or dead; affected 100,000 or more persons; or caused a monetary damage of 1 billion or more US dollars.
https://www.aiddata.org/blog/why-should-we-wait-mapping-for-the-next-disaster (last consulted 12/02/2021).
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Acknowledgements
This research has been made possible thanks to funding from LABEX CLERVOLC. In addition, we would like to thank the FERDI (Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) and the ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche, France) for their financial support through the ‘‘Investissements d’avenir’’ program and the LABEX IDGM+ (ANR-10-LABX-14-01) mechanism. We would also like to thank the participants of the 12th Annual Social Science Conference for their valuable advice. Finally, we thank the editor and the anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments, which helped us to improve the manuscript. The usual disclaimers apply.
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Appendices
Appendix 1. Global distribution of volcanoes
Eruptions since 1900. Source: Olivier Santoni (CERDI) using data from the Global Volcanic Program (2013). Note: Volcanic eruptions that occurred since 1900 and cities of more than 1 million inhabitants located at less than 100 km of a volcano that erupted at least once since 1900. Significant eruptions are eruptions that meet at least one of the following criteria: caused fatalities, caused $1 million damage or more, VEI of 6 or more, caused a tsunami, or was associated with a major earthquake (source: NGDC/WDS). Non-significant eruptions are eruptions that do not meet any of the aforementioned criteria (source: Global Volcanic Program)
Holocene volcanoes. Source: Olivier Santoni (CERDI) using data from the Global Volcanic Program (2013). Note: Volcanoes with eruptions during the Holocene period (approximately the last 10,000 years) (source: Global Volcanic Program)
Appendix 2. The economics of volcanoes?
Number of bibliographic database entries mentioning at least one type of natural hazard in its title a) among all Scopus entries, all subject areas and document types included; b) among Scopus entries with “economics”, “econometrics “or “finance” as a subject area of the source, all document types included; c) among Scopus entries that are articles published in a peer-reviewed or trade journal with “economics”, “econometrics” and “finance”as a subject area of the journal; d) among all entries of the American Economic Association. The use of a wildcard character in “volcan*” means that the search found “volcano”, “volcanic”, and “volcanism”. Data extracted on 04 December 2019.
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Choumert-Nkolo, J., Lamour, A. & Phélinas, P. The Economics of Volcanoes. EconDisCliCha 5, 277–299 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00087-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-021-00087-2