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Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Energy Production Potentials from Municipal Solid Waste Management in Thailand Through 2050

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Abstract

This study estimated the amounts of municipal solid waste, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential, and energy production potential from waste management in Thailand from 2017–2050. According to a grey forecasting model (GM 1,3), waste generation is predicted to increase at an average rate of 1.15% year–1 and will reach 39.61 M tons in 2050. Four waste management scenarios were investigated including: a baseline scenario, in which waste management practices in 2017 remain unchanged; scenario 1, which includes installation of waste-to-energy incineration plants from 2018–2021; scenario 2, which assumes the waste-to-energy target (900 MWe) is accomplished; and scenario 3 which maximizes waste sorting and material recovery. In the baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emissions will reach 18,972 kt CO2eq and the power production potential will be 179 MWe in 2050. Scenario 2 provides maximum waste disposal reduction, resulting in the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation. Its greenhouse gas emissions are 20% lower than the baseline in 2030, and 47% in 2050. The power production potential in scenario 2 in 2050 (910 MWe) can help prevent 11,756 kt CO2eq of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel consumption. Scenario 1 provides the smallest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, with only 7% reduction in 2030 compared to the baseline. However, all scenarios can help Thailand meet its Nationally Determined Contributions targets. Findings from this study provide some insights for policy makers and researchers in evaluating waste management and climate policies.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Asst. Prof. Dr. Komsilp Wangyao, Asst. Prof. Dr. Chalor Jarusutthirak, Dr. Rotchana Intharathirat, Dr. Akarapong Untong, and Mr. Supajit Sukkanta for their guidance, and the Center of Excellence on Hazardous Substance Management, Chulalongkorn University, for financial support during database development. The authors would like to express their gratitude to The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi and the Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation for the financial support to perform this study.

Funding

Financial support for this research was provided by The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, The Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment, and The Center of Hazardous Substance Management, PERDO, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research, and Innovation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand

    Thichakorn Pudcha, Awassada Phongphiphat & Sirintornthep Towprayoon

  2. Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment (CEE), Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI), Bangkok, Thailand

    Thichakorn Pudcha, Awassada Phongphiphat & Sirintornthep Towprayoon

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  1. Thichakorn Pudcha
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  2. Awassada Phongphiphat
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  3. Sirintornthep Towprayoon
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by TP and AP. The first draft of the manuscript was prepared by TP. AP and ST revised the manuscripts. All authors commented on the manuscript improvements, and read, and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Awassada Phongphiphat.

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Pudcha, T., Phongphiphat, A. & Towprayoon, S. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Energy Production Potentials from Municipal Solid Waste Management in Thailand Through 2050. Earth Syst Environ 7, 83–97 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00323-z

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