Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling pine wilt disease (PWD) for current and future climate scenarios as part of a pest risk analysis for pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer) Nickle in Germany

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causes pine wilt disease (PWD) in Pinus species given suitable climatic conditions. A model was run for Germany to assess the potential that Pinus sylvestris trees succumb to pine wilt once B. xylophilus has been introduced. The following climate scenarios have been modelled: current climatic conditions, an exceptional hot year (2003) and two future climatic conditions with target year 2050 for low (B1) and middle (A1B) emission scenarios based on the IPCC classification. Additional parameters included in the model were nematode inoculum, time of infestation and tree physiological conditions (healthy ors stressed). Under the current climatic conditions, P. sylvestris would not develop PWD assuming that trees are healthy. However, water-stressed trees in the river Rhine area south-west of Germany may succumb to PWD in the current climate. Climatic conditions like those experienced in 2003 would support the expression of PWD in healthy trees in the south of Germany and in almost the whole of Germany if the trees are stressed. Predicted future temperature increases up to 2050 under both emission scenarios will lead to more stress, placing extensive areas of Germany at risk of PWD, including the north-eastern part where Pinus sylvestris is the dominant tree species.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bense U (1995) Longhorned beetles: illustred key to the Cerambycidae and Vesperidae of Europe. Markgraf Verlag, Weikersheim, p 512

    Google Scholar 

  • Bivand RS, Pebesma E, Gomez-Rubio V (2013) Applied spatial data analysis with R, 2nd edn. Springer, New York http://www.asdar-book.org/

  • Bivand R, Keitt T, Rowlingson B (2018) rgdal: bindings for the ’Geospatial’ Data Abstraction Library. , r package version 1.3-2 https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rgdal

  • BMEL (2014) Der Wald in Deutschland. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse der dritten Waldinventur, Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft, Berlin

  • BMEL (2017) Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung. Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft, Bonn

  • Braasch H, Enzian S (2003) The pinewood nematode problem in Europe—present situation and outlook. Nematol Monogr Perspect 1:77–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Core Team R (2017) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing.<xref, Vienna, Austria https://www.R-project.org/

  • Daub M (2008) Investigations on pathogenicity, invasion biology and population dynamics of the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner und Buhrer 1934) Nickle 1070 in European conifers. Dissertationen aus dem Julius. Kühn-Institut, JKI, Braunschweig

  • De la Fuente B, Saura S, Beck PS (2018) Predicting the spread of an invasive tree pest: the pine wood nematode in Southern Europe. J Appl Ecol 55(5):2374–2385. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EPPO (2018a) Isolated finding of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Castilla y Léon (Spain). EPPO reporting Service, No, p 7

  • EPPO (2018b) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus: eradication of the outbreak in Sancti-Spíritus (Spain). EPPO Reporting Service, No, p 2

  • European Commission (2012) Implementing decision of 26 September 2012 on emergency measures to prevent the spread within the Union of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer) Nickle et al. (the pine wood nematode). Official Journal of the European Union 55, L 266:42–52

  • Evans HF, McNamara DG, Braasch H, Chadoeuf J, Magnusson C (1996) Pest risk analysis (PRA) for the territories of the European Union (as PRA area) on Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vectors in the genus Monochamus. Bull OEPP 26:199–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans S, Randle T, Henshall P, Arcangeli C, Pellenq J, Lafont S, Vials C (2003) Recent advances in the mechanistic modelling of forest stands and catchments. Forest Research Annual Report and Accounts 2003-2004 Forest Research and the Stationery Office, Edinburgh, pp 98–111

  • Gerstengarbe FW, Badeck F, Hattermann F, Krysanova V, Lahmer W, Lasch P, Stock M, Suckow F, Wechsung F, Werner P (2003) Studie zur klimatischen entwicklung im Land Brandenburg bis 2055 und deren Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Forst- und Landwirtschaft sowie deren Ableitung erster Perspektiven. PIK Report, PIK Potsdam 83:86

  • Girvetz EH, Zganjar C, Raber GT, Maurer EP, Kareiva P, Lawlwer JJ (2009) Applied climate-change analysis: the climate wizard tool. PLoS ONE 4(12):e8320. https://doi.org/10.1371/journalpone0008320

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Gruffudd HR, Jenkins TAR, Evans HF (2016) Using an Evapo-Transpiration model (ETpN) to predict the risk and expression of Pine Wilt Disease (PWD) across Europe. Biol Invasions 18(10):2823–2840

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halik S, Bergdahl DR (1994) Long-term survival of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in living Pinus sylvestris in an established plantation. Euro J For Pathol 24:357–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans RJ (2017) Raster: geographic data analysis and modeling, r package version, pp 2.6–7 https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster

  • Hirata A, Nakamura K, Nakao K, Kominami Y, Tanaka N, Ohashi H, Takano KT, Takeuchi W, Matsui T (2017) Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios. PLOS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182837

  • Kennedy MC, O’Hagan T (2006) The gaussian emulation machine. (GEM) software http://www.tonyohagan.co.uk/academic/GEM/

  • Kishi Y (1995) The pinewood nematode and the Japanese pine sawyer. Thomas Company limited, Tokyo, Japan

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuroda K, Yamada T, Kazuhiko M, Tamura H (1988) Effects of cavitation on the development of pine wilt disease caused by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. Ann Phytopath Soc Jpn 54:606–615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landsberg J, Sands P (2011) Physiological ecology of forest production, processes and models. principles. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Maehara N, Hata K, Futai K (2005) Effect of blue-stain fungi on the number of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (nematoda: Aphelenchoididae) carried by Monochamus alternatus (coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Nematology 7(2):161–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mamyia Y (1988) History of pine wilt disease in Japan. J Nematol 20(2):219–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Mota M, Braasch H, Bravo M, Penas A, Burgermeister W, Metge K, Sousa E (1999) First report of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Portugal and in Europe. Nematology 1:727–734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura K, Maehara N, Aikawa T, Ichihara Y, et al (2013) Research project to develop strategic action plan in the pine-wilt disease unaffected area in northern Japan. In: Schröder T (ed) Book of abstracts of the pine wilt disease conference 2013. Julius Kühn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Braunschweig, Germany

  • Naves P, Sousa E (2009) Threshold temperatures and degree-day estimates for development of post-dormancy larvae of Monochamus galloprovincialis (coleoptera: Cerambycidae). J Pest Sci 82:1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naves PM, Camacho S, Sousa EM, Quartau JA (2007) Transmission of the pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus through feeding activity of Monochamus galloprovincialis (col., cerambycidae). J Appl Entomol 131(1):21–25

  • Nunes da Silva M, Solla A, Sampedro L, Zas R, Vasconcelos M (2015) Susceptibility to the pinewood nematode (PWN) of four pine species involved in potential range expansion across Europe. Tree Physiol 35(9):987–99. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv046

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pebesma EJ, Bivand RS (2005) Classes and methods for spatial data in R. R News 5(2):9–13 https://CRAN.R-project.org/doc/Rnews/

  • Robinet C (2014) Rephrame project–research extending plant health risk and monitoring evaluation. Work package 7, Third periodic report http://www.rephrame.eu/

  • Robinet C, van Opstal N, Baker R, Rouques A (2011) Applying a spread model to identify the entry points from which the pine wood nematode, the vector of pine wilt disease, would spread most rapidly across. Europe. Biological Invasions

  • Roques A, L Zhao JS, Robinet C (2015) Pine wood nematode, pine wilt disease, vector beetle and pine tree: how a multiplayer system could reply to climate change. In: Björkman C, Niemelä P (eds) Climate change and insect pests, CABI Climate Change Series, chap 12, pp 220–234

  • Rutherford TA, Webster JM (1987) Distribution of pine wilt disease with respect to temperature in North America, Japan and Europe. Can J Forest Res 17:1050–1059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutherford TA, Riga E, Webster JM (1992) Temperature-mediated behavioral relationships in Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, B. Mucronatus and their hybrids. J Nematol 24:04–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Schröder T, McNamara DG, Gaar V (2009) Guidance on sampling to detect pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in trees, wood and insects. Bull OEPP 39:179–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sousa E, Naves P, Bonifácio L, Henriques J, Inácio ML, Evans H (2011) Assessing risks of pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus transfer between wood packaging by simulating assembled pallets in service. Bull OEPP/EPPO Bull 41:423–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sutherland J, Peterson M (1999) The pinewood nematode in Canada: history, distribution, hosts, potential vectors and research. Suitability of pine forests in relation to pine wilt and decline. In: Proceedings of international symposium tokyo, Japan, 27–28 October, 1998 Shokado Shoten, Kyoto Japan pp 247–253

  • Tank AK, Wijngaard JB, Können GP, Bohm R, Demaree G, Gocheva A, et al (2002) Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int J Climatol 22:1441–1453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tukushige Y, Kiyohara T (1969) Bursaphelenchus sp. in the wood of dead pine trees. J Jpn For Soc 51:193–195

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao BG, Futai K, Sutherland JR, Takeuchi Y (2008) Pine wilt disease. Springer Publishing, Tokyo

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to dedicate this work to Dr. Jens-Georg Unger, head of the Julius Kühn Institute for National and International Plant Health, who passed away unexpectedly in spring of 2017, aged 61. He recognised early on that climate change would present additional challenges for the risk assessment of quarantine pests.

The authors acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Funding

The application of the described model to the area and the situation in Germany was supported by the Julius Kühn Institute, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Asiantaeth Ymchwil Coedwigaeth/Forest Research Agency, Canolfan yr Amgylchedd Cymru, Ffordd Deiniol, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK

    H. R. Gruffudd, T. A. R. Jenkins & H. F. Evans

  2. Division 714 Plant Health and Phytosanitary Affairs in Export, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), Rochusstrasse 1, 53123, Bonn, Germany

    T. Schröder

Authors
  1. H. R. Gruffudd
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. T. Schröder
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. T. A. R. Jenkins
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. H. F. Evans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to H. R. Gruffudd.

Ethics declarations

Conflicts of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gruffudd, H.R., Schröder, T., Jenkins, T.A.R. et al. Modelling pine wilt disease (PWD) for current and future climate scenarios as part of a pest risk analysis for pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer) Nickle in Germany. J Plant Dis Prot 126, 129–144 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41348-018-0197-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41348-018-0197-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation