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Emergency decision-making combining cumulative prospect theory and group decision-making

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Abstract

With respect to the characteristic of risk and the potential evolvement of scenarios in emergency management analysis, this study proposes an emergency decision-making method with interval probability based on cumulative prospect theory and group decision-making. Under emergency risk environment, there is a tremendous need to consider decision-maker’s psychological behavior which affects the decision results. In addition, an emergency decision generally involves joint participation among departments, which inevitably brings about group decision-making. Therefore, aiming at decision problems in emergency management, this paper provides an algorithm of emergency group decision-making considering psychological behaviors. For illustration and verification, a numerical example and two comparisons are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method. The contribution of this study is characterized by three aspects. First, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to quantify the impact of psychological behaviors. Second, group decision-making is considered as a think tank, which makes the decision more persuasive than single-person methods. Third, this study proposes a novel intelligent optimization algorithm, plant growth simulation algorithm, to integrate the different individual evaluations.

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Acknowledgements

Grateful acknowledgement is made to my supervisor Mr. Li who gave me considerable help by means of suggestion, comments and criticism. Meanwhile, the authors deeply appreciate the contribution to this paper made by editor and reviewers. Their comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, People’s Republic of China

    Wenjing Liu & Lei Li

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  1. Wenjing Liu
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  2. Lei Li
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Correspondence to Lei Li.

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Liu, W., Li, L. Emergency decision-making combining cumulative prospect theory and group decision-making. Granul. Comput. 4, 39–52 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41066-018-0086-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41066-018-0086-5

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