Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Review of Afghanistan’s development pattern from 2001 to 2021: a relative lack of sustainability, inclusiveness, and prosperity

  • REVIEW ARTICLE
  • Published:
Journal of Social and Economic Development Aims and scope Submit manuscript

This article has been updated

Abstract

After the 9/11 attacks, Afghanistan attracted world attention. The US and international community established a democratic government and started to create a long-lasting political and economic system. Unfortunately, in August 2021, the government collapsed even before the whole foreign force left the country, so Afghanistan had a legitimate government from 2001 to 2021. Two decades have passed, and much of that time has been squandered. The main economic domains—agriculture, minerals, and transit trade—remained undeveloped; reconstruction was never completed; state-building efforts in Afghanistan failed; and the country remained as poor as it was. Investment in natural resource extraction, agriculture development, and commercial mining could build a strong and stable economy, but none of these happened. Afghanistan, having huge potential for electricity production capacity, left among the lowest electricity consumption levels of the world and regional states, a tenth of the levels of the neighboring countries, and over 80 percent of the power supplied by bordering states. Foreign forces, contractors, and aid agencies created short-lived jobs for Afghans; the opportunities for jobs were restricted in big cities, mainly in the capital, and the richest quarter of the population living in urban areas benefited. The political crisis, corruption, insecurity, conflict, and war increased poverty rather than alleviated it. Unemployment and poverty remained widespread in rural areas, which posed a threat to government developmental efforts. Unsustainable and unreliable economic and political systems were run during the last twenty years (from 2001 to 2021). Nation building efforts have not gone as planned; Afghanistan is as poor as it was with the lowest standards of living globally, and the current government, plunged into an economic and financial crisis, is not able to provide basic goods and services. Unfortunately, Afghanistan faces an uncertain future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Sources: Calculated by author from the ITC Reports

Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Sources: Calculated by author from the ADB reports 2000–2020

Fig. 4

Sources: ADB reports

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The datasets generated in this article are available at the ADB, ITC, and GoA.

Change history

  • 25 February 2024

    The original online version of this article was revised to correct the article title.

References

  • Acemoglu D, Robinson JA (2012) Why nations fail: the origins of power, prosperity and poverty. Profile Books, London

    Google Scholar 

  • ADB (2003) Afghanistan’s transport sector: on the road to recovery

  • ADB (2017a) Afghanistan, achieving inclusive growth in a fragile and conflict-affected situation, pp 2017a–2021

  • ADB (2017b) Afghanistan transport sector master plan update (2017b–2036)

  • ADB (2020) Basic statistics 2020. Asian Development Bank

  • Afghanistan In: The Statesman’s Yearbook 2022. The Statesman's Yearbook. Palgrave Macmillan, London. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-96045-3_11

  • Ahlers R, Brandimarte L, Kleemans I, Sadat SH (2014) Ambitious development on fragile foundations: criticalities of current large dam construction in Afghanistan. Geoforum 54:49–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.03.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali G (2020) China–Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan: assessing key interests and implementing strategies. Pac Rev. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2020.1845228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amin M, Bernell D (2018) Power sector reform in Afghanistan: barriers to achieving universal access to electricity. Energy Policy 123:72–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anonymous (2021) Afghanistan minerals: a monkey trap for aspiring miners. Financial Times

  • Asey T (2014) Afghanistan Needs an Economic Czar. Foreign policy

  • Ayotte SKA, Dunford JF, Lindborg MN (2021) A pathway for peace in Afghanistan. United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037

  • Bennett MAB, de Schaetzen, van Rooden R, Dicks-Mireaux L, Fischer F, Kalfon T (2003) Rebuilding a macroeconomic framework for reconstruction and growth. International Monetary Fund

  • Bert W (2011) American military intervention in unconventional war. St. Martin’s Press, New York, p 128

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bizhan N (2016) Reforming aid practices: reinforcing the state building process in Afghanistan. Policy Brief

  • Chadha V, Chadda I (2020) The imperative of social sector development for achieving the goal of inclusive growth in India: an analytical study. J Soc Econ Develop. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-020-00102-4

  • Chaudhuri S (2018) Afghanistan: learning from a decade of progress and loss. World Bank

  • Clarke P (2000) Food security and war in Afghanistan. Development 43(3):113–119. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.development.11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen A, Arkin J (2014). Afghans don’t like tofu, either. Foreign policy

  • Cunningham E (2016) The U.S. spent billions building roads in Afghanistan, now many of them are beyond repair. The Washington Post

  • FAO/WFP (1999) FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Afghanistan, Special Report. FAO/WFP, Rome

  • Funaiole MP (2021). Afghanistan is no treasure trove for China. Foreign policy

  • Gall C (2008) Afghans lack $10 billion in aid, report says. The New York Times

  • Ghosh B (2021) What will the taliban do with a $22 billion economy? Bloomberg

  • Government of Afghanistan (GoA) (2016) Ministry of public works’ priority projects and programs. Kabul

  • Government of Afghanistan (GoA) (2021) Annual report. Ministry of Public Works’. https://mopw.gov.af/en/node/702

  • Hakimi BA (2023) 2,000 Tons of Pine Nuts Exported in Past 5 Months: Ministry. TOLOnews

  • Hamiduzzaman M, Islam MR (2020) Save life or livelihood: responses to COVID-19 among South-Asian poor communities. Local Dev Soc. https://doi.org/10.1080/26883597.2020.1801334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houte M Van (2016) Afghanistan. In: Return migration to Afghanistan. Migration, diasporas and citizenship. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40775-3_2

  • Hussainkhail F (2018) Afghanistan-Air Afghanistan-China Air Corridor Inaugurated. TOLOnews

  • ILO (2018) National child labor strategy and action plan 2018–2030

  • ILO (2019a) Employment scenario in Afghanistan from 2007–08 to 2013–14

  • ILO (2019b) Employment and environmental sustainability fact sheets 2019b. International Labor Organization

  • IMF (2021) First Review of the extended credit facility arrangement for the islamic republic of Afghanistan.

  • IPBES (2019) Global assessment report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. In: Brondizio ES, Settele J, Diaz S, Ngo HT (eds). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany, pp 83

  • Khan I (2021). What’s next for Afghanistan’s tumultuous public finances? The diplomat

  • KU (2021) The Third Scientific Conference of “Study and Management of Afghanistan's Water Resources on the Establishment of Kamal Khan Dam” was held at Kabul University. Kabul University. https://ku.edu.af/en/third-scientific-conference-study-and-management-afghanistans-water-resources-establishment-kamal

  • Kugelman M (2021) High-ranking diplomat Wendy Sherman’s visit underscores shifting relations with India and Pakistan. Foreign policy

  • Kullab S (2021).Economy on the brink, Taliban rely on former technocrats. The diplomat

  • Li Y, Wu W, Wang Y (2021) Global poverty dynamics and resilience building for sustainable poverty reduction. J Geogr Sci 31:1159–1170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-021-1890-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahendra Dev S (2017) Poverty and employment: roles of agriculture and non-agriculture. Indian J Labour Econ 60(1):57–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-017-0091-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malistani N, Nejabi MN (2019) Key technical considerations on rehabilitation of existing Salang Tunnel-Afghanistan. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334353455

  • MEW (2021) Hydropower generation capacity of Afghanistan. Ministry of Energy and Water. http://mew.gov.af/fa/page/1872/1843/1837

  • Mueckenheim J (2007) Countries of the world and their leaders yearbook. Thomson Gale, Farmington Hills, pp 25–39

    Google Scholar 

  • Nagheeby M, Warner J (2018) The geopolitical overlay of the hydropolitics of the Harirud River Basin. Int Environ Agreem: Politics, Law Econ 18(6):839–860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-018-9418-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Najafizada E (2021) Afghanistan could go dark as power bills remain unpaid. Aljazeera

  • Najmuddin O, Qamer FM, Gul H, Zhuang W, Zhang F (2021) Cropland use preferences under land, water and labour constraints—implications for wheat self-sufficiency in the Kabul River basin Afghanistan. Food Secur 13(4):955–979. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01147-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noori M, Zeidan K (2019). Road sector strategy 2019–23. Government of Afghanistan

  • Nordland R (2016) Taliban cut -off Afghan highway linking Kabul to Northern Gateways. The New York Times

  • Pajhwok (2020) Aqina-Andkhoi railway line inaugurated, 3 projects signed. Pajhwok Afghan News. 14 January 2020

  • Parkin B, Qazizai F (2021) Afghanistan farmer exodus exacerbates rural crisis for Taliban rulers. Financial Times

  • Poole N, Echavez C, Rowland D (2018) Are agriculture and nutrition policies and practice coherent? Stakeholder evidence from Afghanistan. Food Secur 10(6):1577–1601. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0851-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmani N, Salari H, Wiar A (2021) Value chain analysis of chilgoza pine nut at southeastern region of Afghanistan. Eur J Agric Food Sci. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejfood.2021.3.4.340

  • Ramachandran S (2016) Afghanistan risks water conflict with Iran. cacianalyst.org/publications /analytical-articles/item/13379-afghanistan-risks-water-conflict-with-iran.html

  • Rasooly MH, Govindasamy P, Aqil A, Rutstein S, Arnold F, Noormal B, Shadoul A (2013) Success in reducing maternal and child mortality in Afghanistan. Glob Public Health 9(sup1):S29–S42. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2013.827733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rocha N (2017) Trade as a vehicle for growth in Afghanistan: challenges and opportunities. The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA

  • Romei V (2021) The Afghanistan economy in charts: what has changed in two decades? Financial Times

  • Sahibzada H (2021) Afghanistan development update. Worldbank.Org

  • Saikal A (2014) Afghanistan’s geographic possibilities. Survival 56(3):141–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2014.920152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shroder J (2007) Afghanistan’s development and functionality: renewing a collapsed state. GeoJournal 70(2–3):91–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-008-9132-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sieff K (2014) After billions in U.S. investment, Afghan roads are falling apart. The Washington Post

  • SIGAR (2014) Quarterly report to the United States congress. Special inspector general for Afghanistan Reconstruction

  • SIGAR (2016) Corruption in conflict: lessons from the U.S. experience in Afghanistan. SIGAR 16–58-LL. https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/sigar-16-58-ll.pdf

  • SIGAR (2018) Afghanistan’s anti-corruption efforts: the Afghan government has begun to implement an anti-corruption strategy, but significant problems must be addressed, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction 18–51-AR. https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/audits/SIGAR-18-51-AR.pdf

  • UNDP (2021) Uncertainty in Afghanistan after August 15’, (September). Available at: https://reliefweb.int /sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ Economic instability and uncertainty in Afghanistan after August 15 - a rapid appraisal.pdf

  • UNOCHA (2021) Humanitarian needs overview Afghanistan

  • Viet Nguyen C, Tho Tran D (2017) Proxy means tests to identify the income poor: application for the case of Vietnam. J Asian Afr Stud 53(4):571–592. https://doi.org/10.1177/002190961770948

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahab S, Youngerman B (2010) A brief history of Afghanistan. Infobase Publishing

  • Wang J (2017) India’s policy toward Afghanistan: implications to the regional security governance. Asian J Middle East Islam Stud 11(4):112–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2017.12023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Li X, Chen P, Xie Y, Liu W (2020) Spatial pattern and developing mechanism of railway geo-systems based on track gauge: a case study of Eurasia. J Geog Sci 30(8):1283–1306. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1782-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WEF (2021) Infrastructure 4.0: achieving better outcomes with technology and systems thinking

  • Winner H, Klein TS (2012) Railway development plan—Afghanistan: resource growth corridors. Study for World Bank and Australian Aid

  • World Bank (2020) Public procurement reforms boost transparency in Afghanistan. The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA

  • World Bank (2021) Afghan communities reap benefits from a cross-regional energy project. https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/afghan-communities-reap-benefits-cross-regional-energy-project

  • Zhang Y, Yu X, Zhang H (2019) Addressing the insufficiencies of the traditional development aid model by utilizing the one belt, one road initiative to sustain development in Afghanistan. Sustainability 11(2):312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L (2021) China reopens Afghan trade lifeline but no rush to recognize Taliban. South China Morning Post. https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3154971/china-reopens-afghan-trade-lifeline-no-rush-recognise-taliban

Download references

Acknowledgements

I thank the Government of Afghanistan, ADB, and ITC for providing data and related sources.

Funding

The authors have not received any funding from any source.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lutfullah Safi.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that there is a conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

The paper is in compliance with ethical standards.

Consent for publication

Consent for publication is attached in a separate file.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Safi, L. Review of Afghanistan’s development pattern from 2001 to 2021: a relative lack of sustainability, inclusiveness, and prosperity. J. Soc. Econ. Dev. 26, 333–352 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-023-00268-7

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-023-00268-7

Keywords

Navigation