Abstract
Climate change shifts the distribution of socioeconomically important medicinal species such as Ganoderma lucidum and Gynostemma pentaphyllum, renowned as immortality mushroom and herb, respectively. To predict their ecological niche and potential distribution in the Philippines, species distribution modeling (SDM) was performed using two algorithms under three climate change scenarios: current, and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1–2.6 and 3–7.0 of the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR Earth System Model for 2081–2100. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP) yielded acceptable mean Area Under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) scores (0.677–0.806). MaxEnt models predict that, under the current scenario, G. lucidum is distributed in low-altitude, open forests with high temperature and precipitation seasonality in mainland Luzon. Meanwhile, G. pentaphyllum is distributed in annually cold and highly diurnal high-altitude mountains across the whole archipelago. Under both future scenarios, based on percent change of very highly suitable areas, G. lucidum is predicted to decrease in suitability (–2.67 to –5.30%) and undergo upward range reduction, while G. pentaphyllum is predicted to increase in suitability (+ 6.75 to + 25.61%) and undergo downward range expansion. However, these migration trends are not evident in GARP models due to its overpredictive nature, mainly due to the use of categorical predictors. Hence, for its conservative predictions, MaxEnt is recommended for presence-only (PO) modeling. These models establish baseline information for local threat assessment and conservation planning for both ‘immortality’ flora. This is the first report of medicinal macrofungus and herb utilizing SDM in the Philippines.
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Partial financial support was received as a small research grant from UST-RCNAS and research support from DOST Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic, and Natural Resources and Development (DOST-PCAARRD) as Balik Scientist grantee is given to NHAD. DEBE and AMDR received an allowance from DOST—Science Education Institute (DOST-SEI) for the thesis. However, the funders had no role in designing the study, collecting, and analyzing data, and preparing the manuscript.
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Buebos-Esteve, D.E., Mamasig, G.D.N.S., Ringor, A.M.D. et al. Modeling the potential distribution of two immortality flora in the Philippines: Applying MaxEnt and GARP algorithms under different climate change scenarios. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 2857–2876 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01661-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01661-7