Abstract
Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors of soil erosion that is expected to change as climate variables alter and impact soil conservation policies significantly. It is important to understand the potential trends in rainfall erosivity and its impacts on the environment, especially in tropical areas where severe rainfall is expected to continue to rise. This study aimed to project spatial and temporal rainfall erosivity factor using ensemble Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The study employed 20 GCMs, four RCPs scenarios, and two projection timescales (2050s and 2080s). The erosivity factor was determined by integrating baseline rainfall intensity with Modified Fournier Index (MFI). The values of erosivity were then interpolated using GIS software, and thematic maps were generated for these variables. The result shows 92% coefficient of determination between observed and simulated rainfalls. The ensemble model revealed that the MAE, SE and RMSE are 0.1487, 1.3692 and 1.2499, respectively. The relative increment of rainfall erosivity ranged from 4.7% to 122% with the highest value of 6292 MJmmha−1 hr−1 yr−1 by 2080s at Kg. Raja sub-basin located at North-Western part of the watershed. Similarly, the peak flow response through Ringlet river was expected to increase in the range of 4.72–35.8% with peak discharge in December by 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario. This study disclosed a potential increase in rainfall erosivity, and availability of water resources influenced by climate change which require appropriate conservation strategies.
Similar content being viewed by others
Code availability
Not Applicable.
References
Abbaspour KC, Faramarzi M, Ghasemi SS, Yang H (2010) Asses Impact Climate Change Water Res Iran 45:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007615
Abdullah AF, Amiri E, Daneshian J et al (2018) Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models. Agric Water Manag 205:63–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.04.023
Abdullah AF, Wayayok A, Nasidi NM et al (2019) Modelling erosion and landslides induced by faming activities at hilly farms. J Teknol 6:195–204
Aiello A, Adamo M, Canora F (2015) Remote sensing and GIS to assess soil erosion with RUSLE3D and USPED at river basin scale in southern Italy. CATENA 131:174–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.04.003
Amanambu AC, Li L, Egbinola CN et al (2019) Spatio-temporal variation in rainfall-runo ff erosivity due to climate change in the Lower Niger Basin, West Africa. CATENA 172:324–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.09.003
Amin IMZ, bin M, Ercan A, Ishida K et al (2019a) Impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of peninsular malaysia. Water 11:1798. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091798
Amin IMZ, bin M, Ercan A, Ishida K et al (2019b) Impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of peninsular Malaysia. Water (Switzerland) 11:779. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091798
Ariti AT, van Vliet J, Verburg PH (2015) Land-use and land-cover changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: assessment of perception and adaptation of stakeholders. Appl Geogr 65:28–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.10.002
Arnoldous HMJ (1977) Methodology used to determine the maximum potential average annual soil loss due to sheet and rill erosion in Morocco. FAO soil Bull 1:39–48
Azim F, Shakir AS, Habib-ur-Rehman KA (2016) Impact of climate change on sediment yield for Naran watershed, Pakistan. Int J Sediment Res 31:212–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsrc.2015.08.002
Basher L, Douglas G, Elliott S et al (2012) Impacts of climate change on erosion and erosion control methods. Springer, Wellington
Bayramov E, Schlager P, Kada M et al (2019) Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts onto predicted erosion risks and their spatial distribution within the landcover classes of the Southern Caucasus using GIS and remote sensing. Model Earth Syst Environ 5:659–667. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0557-3
Bera A (2017) Assessment of soil loss by universal soil loss equation (USLE) model using GIS techniques: a case study of Gumti River Basin, Tripura, India. Model Earth Syst Environ 3:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-017-0289-9
Boufala M, El Hmaidi A, Chadli K et al (2019) Hydrological modeling of water and soil resources in the basin upstream of the Allal El Fassi dam (Upper Sebou watershed, Morocco). Model Earth Syst Environ 5:1163–1177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00621-y
Buytaert W, Vuille M, Dewulf A et al (2010) Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14:1247–1258. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1247-2010
Correa SW, Mello CR, Chou SC et al (2016) Soil erosion risk associated with climate change at Mantaro River basin, Peruvian Andes. CATENA 147:110–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.003
Das B, Paul A, Bordoloi R et al (2018) Soil erosion risk assessment of hilly terrain through integrated approach of RUSLE and geospatial technology: a case study of Tirap District, Arunachal Pradesh. Model Earth Syst Environ 4:373–381. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0435-z
de Mello CR, Ávila LF, Viola MR et al (2015) Assessing the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosivity throughout the twenty-first century in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil. Environ Earth Sci 73:8683–8698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4033-3
DID (2012) Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia 2nd edn. Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
dos Silva S, Danielle S, Blanco CJC et al (2020) Modeling of the spatial and temporal dynamics of erosivity in the Amazon. Model Earth Syst Environ 6:513–523. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00697-6
Duan X, Gu Z, Li Y, Xu H (2016) The spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall erosivity in Yunnan Province, southwest China: an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions. Glob Planet Change 144:82–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.011
Erle K, Tone MM, Knut A (2019) Assessment of future water availability under climate change, considering scenarios for population growth and ageing infrastructure. J Water Clim Chang 10:1–12. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.096
Fagbohun BJ, Anifowose AYB, Odeyemi C et al (2016) GIS-based estimation of soil erosion rates and identification of critical areas in Anambra sub-basin. Nigeria Model Earth Syst Environ 2:159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0218-3
Fenta AA, Yasuda H, Shimizu K et al (2017) Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall and erosivity in the Eastern Africa region. Hydrol Process 31:4555–4567. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11378
Gasim MB, Mokhtar M, Surif S et al (2012) Analysis of thirty years recurrent floods of the Pahang River, Malaysia. Asian J Earth Sci 5:25–35. https://doi.org/10.3923/ajes.2012.25.35
Gericke A, Kiesel J, Deumlich D, Venohr M (2019) Recent and future changes in rainfall erosivity and implications for the soil erosion risk in Brandenburg. NE Germany Water (Switzerland) 11:24. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050904
Ghani AA, Lo C-H, Chung S-L (2013) Basaltic dykes of the Eastern Belt of Peninsular Malaysia: the effects of the difference in crustal thickness of Sibumasu and Indochina. J Asian Earth Sci 77:127–139
Giang P, Giang L, Toshiki K (2017) Spatial and temporal responses of soil erosion to climate change impacts in a transnational watershed in Southeast Asia. Climate 5:22. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010022
Gould GK, Liu M, Barber ME et al (2016) The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed. J Hydrol 536:74–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.025
Hanaish IS, Ibrahim K, Jemain AA (2011) Daily rainfall disaggregation using HYETOS model for Peninsular Malaysia. Int Conf Appl Math Simulat Model Proc 56:146–150
Koutsoyiannis D, Onof C (2001) Rainfall disaggregation using adjusting procedures on a Poisson cluster model. J Hydrol 246:109–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00363-8
Kwan MS, Tanggang FT, Juneng L (2011) Projected changes of future climate extremes in Malaysia. National symposium on climate change adaptation. Sains Malaysiana 42:1051–1058
Li X, Ye X (2018) Variability of rainfall erosivity and erosivity density in the Ganjiang River Catchment, China: characteristics and influences of climate change. Atmosphere (Basel) 9:56. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9020048
Li Y, Xie Z, Qin Y, Sun Y (2019) Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of soil erosion in the pisha sandstone area loess plateau China. Polish J Environ Stud 28:2205–2214. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/92940
Liu YH, Li DH, Chen W et al (2018) Soil erosion modeling and comparison using slope units and grid cells in Shihmen reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan. Water (Switzerland) 10:22. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101387
Mansor N, Rashid KM, Mohamad Z, Abdullah Z (2015) Agro tourism potential in Malaysia. Int Acad Res J Bus Technol 1:37–44
Marziali L, Tartari G, Salerno F et al (2017) Climate change impacts on sediment quality of Subalpine reservoirs: implications on management. Water (Switzerland) 9:1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090680
Matonse AH, Anandhi A, Frei A et al (2011) Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment. Water Resour Res 47:224. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009104
Mondal A, Khare D, Kundu S (2016) Change in rainfall erosivity in the past and future due to climate change in the central part of India. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 4:186–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2016.08.004
Neal MR, Nearing MA, Vining RC et al (2005) Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with changes in crop management. CATENA 61:165–184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2005.03.003
Nerantzaki SD, Giannakis GV, Nikolaidis NP et al (2016) Assessing the impact of climate change on sediment loads in a large mediterranean watershed. Soil Sci 181:306–314. https://doi.org/10.1097/SS.0000000000000164
Nicu IC, Asăndulesei A (2018) GIS-based evaluation of diagnostic areas in landslide susceptibility analysis of Bahluieț River Basin (Moldavian Plateau, NE Romania). Are Neolithic sites in danger? Geomorphology 314:27–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.04.010
Nunes AN, Lourenço L, Vieira A, Bento-Gonçalves A (2016) Precipitation and Erosivity in Southern Portugal: seasonal variability and trends (1950–2008). L Degrad Dev 27:211–222. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2265
Panagos P, Ballabio C, Meusburger K et al (2017) Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets. J Hydrol 548:212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.006
Patowary S, Sarma AK (2018) GIS-based estimation of soil loss from hilly urban area incorporating hill cut factor into RUSLE. Water Resour Manag 32:3535–3547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2006-5
Pheerawat P, Udmale P (2017) Impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Huai Luang watershed. Thailand Atmosphere (Basel) 8:62. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8080143
Pradhan B, Chaudhari A, Adinarayana J, Buchroithner MF (2012) Soil erosion assessment and its correlation with landslide events using remote sensing data and GIS: a case study at Penang Island, Malaysia. Environ Monit Assess 184:715–727. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-011-1996-8
Qin W, Guo Q, Zuo C et al (2016) Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall erosivity in mainland China for 1951–2010. CATENA 147:177–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.006
Razali A, Syed Ismail SN, Awang S et al (2018) Land use change in highland area and its impact on river water quality: a review of case studies in Malaysia. Ecol Process 7:19. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-018-0126-8
Renard KG, Freimund JR (1994) Using monthly precipitation data to estimate the Rfactor in the revised USLE. J Hydrol 157:287–306
Rodríguez-Blanco ML, Arias R, Taboada-Castro MM et al (2016) Potential impact of climate change on suspended sediment yield in NW Spain: a case study on the corbeira catchment. Water (Switzerland) 8:85. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8100444
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2010) Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim Res 41:1–14. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00836
Sholagberu AT, Ul Mustafa MR, Wan Yusof K, Ahmad MH (2016) Evaluation of rainfall-runoff erosivity factor for cameron highlands, Pahang, Malaysia. J Ecol Eng 17:1–8. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/63338
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (2013) Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al (2014) Climate Change 2013 - the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Talchabhadel R, Nakagawa H, Kawaike K, Prajapati R (2020) Evaluating the rainfall erosivity (R-factor) from daily rainfall data: an application for assessing climate change impact on soil loss in Westrapti River basin. Nepal Model Earth Syst Environ 6:1741–1762. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00787-w
Tamene L, Adimassu Z, Aynekulu E, Yaekob T (2017) Estimating landscape susceptibility to soil erosion using a GIS-based approach in Northern Ethiopia. Int Soil Water Conserv Res 5:221–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.05.002
Teh SH (2011) Soil erosion modeling using RUSLE and GIS on cameron highlands. Malaysia for Hydropower Development, Solborg at Nordurslod
Tingem M, Rivington M, Bellocchi G et al (2008) Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon. Clim Res 36:65–77. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00733
Wayayok A, Nasidi NM, Abdullahi AF (2018) Erosion and sediment control guidelines for agricultural activities in Hilly areas. Case Study of Cameron Highlands, Malaysia
Yang F, Lu C (2015) Spatiotemporal variation and trends in rainfall erosivity in China’s dryland region during 1961–2012. CATENA 133:362–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.06.005
Zhao Q, Liu Q, Ma L et al (2017) Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960–2011 in Guangdong Province, southern China. Theor Appl Climatol 128:113–128. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1694-5
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) and Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) for sponsoring this research. The supports by Bayero University Kano and Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) are appreciated.
Funding
The study was sponsored by the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) and Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) under research number LRGS-NANOMITE/5526305.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Nuraddeen Mukhtar Nasidi, Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, and Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim wrote the paper.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
Authors declare no conflict of interest.
Availability of data and material
https://cera-ww.dkrz.de/ WDCC/ui/cerasearch.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nasidi, N.M., Wayayok, A., Abdullah, A.F. et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall erosivity due to climate change in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 7, 1847–1861 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00917-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00917-4