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Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia

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Abstract

There are very few scientific studies on the predictions of future drought hazard and its effects on economic, social, and environmental under the existing global climate change scenarios. This study, aims to predict the future meteorological drought hazard (2016–2070) under the representative concentration path 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. The study also investigates the onset, end set, duration, magnitude, intensity, frequency, severity and spatial coverage of future drought occurrences. Monthly tropical applications of meteorology using satellite data and ground–based observations and daily AgMERRA daily climatic data were used from 19 meteorological stations. A robust interpolation technique called Inverse distance weighted was also applied to assess the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall. Then, the temporal seasonal rainfall variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. A standardized precipitation index at 3 months time scale was applied to measure the precipitation deficit and characterize drought properties. The results reveal an increasing and worsening drought event in the future than the last three decades. Hence, the study area will be stricken for about 30–39 times with mild to extreme droughts. The rate of drought recurrence will also be once in every 1.8–2.3 years. The duration (1–5 years) of drought will be similar in all districts, but the magnitude and intensity will vary due to the level of precipitation deficit. It is, therefore, recommended that policy or decision makers and smallholder farmers should improve the existing water management and agricultural practices to cope up with the climate extremes and boost agricultural productivity.

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Acknowledgements

This research was financially supported by Mekelle University under grant number CRPO/ICS/PhD/001/09 and the Open Society Foundation—Africa Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (OSF—ACCAI) project of Mekelle University. The lead author is thankful for the PhD scholarship given by the Transdisciplinary Training for Resource Efficiency and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (TreccAfrica II) project. The authors would also like to extend their special thanks to the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) particularly for Mr. Goitom Kelem and Dr. Alexander C. Ruane, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies-United State of America for their valuable supports on sending the station and AgMERRA climate data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Private Bag UB 0704, Gaborone, Botswana

    Eskinder Gidey, Oagile Dikinya, Reuben Sebego & Eagilwe Segosebe

  2. Land Resource Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Eskinder Gidey & Amanuel Zenebe

  3. Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia

    Eskinder Gidey & Amanuel Zenebe

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  1. Eskinder Gidey
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  2. Oagile Dikinya
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  3. Reuben Sebego
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  4. Eagilwe Segosebe
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  5. Amanuel Zenebe
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Correspondence to Eskinder Gidey.

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Gidey, E., Dikinya, O., Sebego, R. et al. Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 4, 475–488 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0453-x

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