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Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective

  • Climate Change and Drought (Q Fu, Section Editor)
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A Correction to this article was published on 09 May 2018

This article has been updated

Abstract

Purpose of Review

Different types of methods give very conflicting impressions about whether water will become scarcer on land as Earth warms, and in what sense(s). Here, I examine how environmental records from past climate changes can be used to clarify the interpretation of these confusing results.

Recent Findings

Evidence from the last ice age and the historical era agrees that CO2-driven warming causes a runoff response dominated by regional signals of varying sign, and a vegetation response dominated by greening. This result supports comprehensive Earth system model output, while casting doubt on the interpretation of temperature-driven indices that project widespread “drying” with warming. In contrast, evidence from pre-Quaternary warm climates points to exotic features such as wet subtropics and extremely polar-amplified warming which are not found in model simulations, suggesting unknown forcings and/or feedbacks.

Summary

The terrestrial eco-hydrologic response to CO2-driven warming in the recent past is consistent with comprehensive models, and not with drought indices. However, in the deeper past, it is consistent with neither.

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Change history

  • 09 May 2018

    The original version of this article, unfortunately, contained an error. In the recently published paper, “Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective,” there are erroneous inconsistencies in the referencing for Table 1.

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Acknowledgements

The author thanks Qiang Fu and Brian Soden for the invitation, and also thanks David Battisti, Alexis Berg, Natalie Burls, Ben Cook, Ed Cook, Aiguo Dai, Alexey Fedorov, Qiang Fu, Sandy Harrison, Tim Herbert, Justin Mankin, Chris Milly, Michael Roderick, Jeremy Caves Rugenstein, Christopher Scotese, Richard Seager, Sonia Seneviratne, Abby Swann, and Park Williams for conversations that contributed to the framing and focus of this review.

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  1. Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, UNC Charlotte, McEniry 324, 9201 University City Blvd, Charlotte, NC, 28223, USA

    Jacob Scheff

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Additional information

The original version of this article was revised: The original version of this article, unfortunately, contained an error. In the recently published paper, “Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective”, there are erroneous inconsistencies in the referencing for Table 1.

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Climate Change and Drought

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Scheff, J. Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective. Curr Clim Change Rep 4, 202–209 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0094-1

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