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Overview of Parametric Survival Analysis for Health-Economic Applications

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Abstract

Health economic models rely on data from trials to project the risk of events (e.g., death) over time beyond the span of the available data. Parametric survival analysis methods can be applied to identify an appropriate statistical model for the observed data, which can then be extrapolated to derive a complete time-to-event curve. This paper describes the properties of the most commonly used statistical distributions as a basis for these models and describes an objective process of identifying the most suitable parametric distribution in a given dataset. The approach can be applied with both individual-patient data as well as with survival probabilities derived from published Kaplan–Meier curves. Both are illustrated with analyses of overall survival from the Sorafenib Hepatocellular Carcinoma Assessment Randomised Protocol trial.

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Notes

  1. This topic is also covered in a report titled “Extrapolating clinical time-to-event outcomes” for the MRC Methodology Project on Extrapolation of RCT Evidence involving Sheffield University.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported in part by a grant from Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals to United BioSource Corporation. The authors are employees of United BioSource Corporation. Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals reviewed and commented on this manuscript, but final editorial control was retained by the authors. KJI was responsible for the development of methods, oversaw analyses, and led the drafting and finalizing of the paper; NK carried out analyses, drafted parts of the paper, and reviewed drafts; AB and NM drafted parts of the paper and reviewed drafts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. United BioSource Corporation, 185 Dorval Avenue, Suite 500, Dorval, QC, H9S 5J9, Canada

    K. Jack Ishak

  2. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

    Noemi Kreif

  3. United BioSource Corporation, London, UK

    Agnes Benedict & Noemi Muszbek

Authors
  1. K. Jack Ishak
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  2. Noemi Kreif
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  3. Agnes Benedict
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  4. Noemi Muszbek
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Correspondence to K. Jack Ishak.

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Ishak, K.J., Kreif, N., Benedict, A. et al. Overview of Parametric Survival Analysis for Health-Economic Applications. PharmacoEconomics 31, 663–675 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-013-0064-3

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