Abstract
Water is one of the most important natural resources and it is essential for human supply, industrial use, and agricultural production. Non-stationarity in historical flow series can indicate the approach of a water crisis or the occurrence of extreme events, which calls for measures to prevent worse scenarios. The objective of this study was to examine the trend in the historical series of hydrological flow and precipitation data and analyze changes and trends in land use and land cover during the period 1985–2018. Data were subsequently subjected to the Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho, and Sen’s slope tests. To identify the point of change in the series, the Pettitt test was used. The results indicate significant negative trends for all analyzed fluviometric stations and low nonsignificant trends in the precipitation series. Associated with these trends, there was a marked reduction in natural areas and an increase in anthropogenic change of landscape that reached + 426% of evolution in agricultural areas with a turning point in 2000, which coincides with the turning point of the flow series. The present study showed that the conversion of native forest into agricultural areas was the main process of change in the land use. According to the statistics employed, the decreasing trends in the flow of the main river and its tributaries are not related to changes in precipitation levels but to increased deforestation and the advancement of agricultural and urban areas throughout the studied region.
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Availability of data and materials
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) repository, link [http://www.snirh.gov.br/hidroweb/apresentacao]; Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) repository, link [https://bdmep.inmet.gov.br/]; Agritempo repository, link [https://www.agritempo.gov.br/agritempo/index.jsp]; and MapBiomas, link [https://mapbiomas.org/].
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Software R Studio.
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Acknowledgements
This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES)—Finance Code 001.
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This research was funded by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES) through payment of master's level salary.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by L.L.F., L.F.deS., L.S.daS., R.M.deJ., C.A.S.S., and F.A.R. The first draft of the manuscript was written by L.L.F. and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Conceptualization: L.L.F.; Methodology: L.L.F., L.F.deS. and C.A.S.S.; Formal analysis and investigation: L.L.F.; Writing—original draft preparation: L.L.F.; Writing—review and editing: L.F.deS., L.S.daS., R.M.deJ., C.A.S.S. and F.A.R.; Supervision: F.A.R. and C.A.S.S.
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Communicated by Senthil Kumar Ponnusamy.
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Ferraz, L.L., de Sousa, L.F., da Silva, L.S. et al. Land use changes and hydrological trend analysis in a Brazilian Cerrado basin. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 7469–7482 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03666-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03666-8