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Multinomial logit estimation of a diameter growth matrix model of two Mediterranean pine species in Spain

  • Original Paper
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Abstract

• Introduction

Understanding diameter growth of the Mediterranean pine species is fundamental for evaluating and making appropriate strategic decisions in forest management. A matrix diameter growth model for two Mediterranean pine forest ecosystems in Spain has been developed.

• Methods

Multinomial logistic (MNL) regression was employed to estimate the transition probabilities of a matrix growth model. The model combines individual tree and stand attributes and explores the effects of independent variables and their relationships with tree size and the probabilities of stand diameter growth. The aim was to predict growth of individual trees by diameter class for a 5-year period.

• Results

MNL model results for diameter growth gave better predictions for Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) than for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Stand simulations showed that diameter growth probabilities depended on productivity and stand density. Stand simulations under fixed conditions showed that the probabilities of diameter growth increased as site productivity increased and decreased with increased stand density index.

• Conclusions

This study demonstrates the usefulness of matrix growth models as tools to predict growth in Mediterranean pine forests. Stand density and site productivity are key factors in explaining Scots pine and Maritime pine forest growth in the study area.

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Acknowledgments

This study is part of a research project (Code AGL-2007-65795-C02-01) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. We are grateful for comments from the Editor and two journal reviewers. Senior author (E. Escalante) thanks the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Spain for its support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute, Universidad de Valladolid–INIA, Av. De Madrid, s/n 34004, Palencia, Spain

    Ernesto Escalante, Valentín Pando, Cristóbal Ordoñez & Felipe Bravo

  2. Departamento de Producción Vegetal y Recursos Forestales, Universidad de Valladolid, Av. De Madrid, s/n 34004, Palencia, Spain

    Ernesto Escalante, Cristóbal Ordoñez & Felipe Bravo

  3. Departamento de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Valladolid, Av. De Madrid, s/n 34004, Palencia, Spain

    Valentín Pando

Authors
  1. Ernesto Escalante
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  2. Valentín Pando
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  3. Cristóbal Ordoñez
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  4. Felipe Bravo
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ernesto Escalante.

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Handling Editor: Matthias Dobbertin

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Escalante, E., Pando, V., Ordoñez, C. et al. Multinomial logit estimation of a diameter growth matrix model of two Mediterranean pine species in Spain. Annals of Forest Science 68, 715–726 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-011-0088-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-011-0088-9

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