Abstract
Abundance, mortality, and population growth of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) are estimated from captures of 4,894 putatively different individuals obtained from 10 years of systematic photographic surveys conducted during the spring migration when most of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort population of bowheads migrates past Point Barrow, Alaska. A stringent matching protocol designed to prevent false positive matches of the naturally, but variably marked individuals, led to 42 resightings between years. The flip side of this stringency is a presence of false negatives, i.e., some true recaptures are not recognized as such. The problem of false negatives is addressed by modeling the capture process and the matching process. The captures of an individual are assumed to follow a Poisson process with intensity depending stochastically on the individual whale and on the year. The probability of successfully matching a capture to a previous capture is estimated by logistic regression on the degree of marking and image quality. Individuals are recruited by the Pella–Tomlinson population model, and their mortality rate is assumed to be constant. The point estimate of yearly growth rate is 3.2%, and bowhead abundance in 2001 is estimated to be 8,250, similar to previous estimates.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Angliss, R. P., Rugh, D. J., Withrow, D. E., and Hobbs, R. C. (1995), “Evaluations of Aerial Photogrammetric Length Measurements of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas Stock of Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus),” Report of the International Whaling Commission, 45, 313–324.
Birnbaum, A. (1961), “Confidence Curves: An Omnibus Technique for Estimation and Testing Statistical Hypotheses,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 56, 246–249.
Brandon, J. R., and Wade, P. R. (2006), “Assessment of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas Stock of Bowhead Whales Using Bayesian Model Averaging,” The Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, 8, 225–239.
da-Silva, C. Q., Gomes, P. V. S., and Stradioto, M. A. (2007), “Bayesian Estimation of Survival and Capture Probabilities Using Logit Link and Photoidentification Data,” Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 6521–6534.
da Silva, C. Q., Zeh, J., Madigan, D., Laake, J., Rugh, D., Baraff, L., Koski, W., and Miller, G. (2000), “Capture–Recapture Estimation of Bowhead Whale Population Size Using Photo-Identification Data,” The Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, 2 (1), 45–61.
Davis, R. A., Koski, W. R., and Miller, G. W. (1983), “Preliminary Assessment of the Length-Frequency Distribution and Gross Annual Recruitment Rate of the Western Arctic Bowhead Whale as Determined With Low-Level Aerial Photography, With Comments on Life History,” Paper SC/35/PS5, presented to International Whaling Commission Scientific Committee
Efron, B. (1987), “Better Bootstrap Confidence Intervals” (with discussion), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 171–200.
Efron, B., and Tibshirani, R. J. (1993), An Introduction to the Bootstrap, London: Chapman & Hall.
George, J. C., Philo, L. M., Hazard, K., Withrow, D., Carroll, G. M., and Suydam, R. (1994), “Frequency of Killer Whale (Orcinus orca) Attacks and Ship Collisions Based on Scarring on Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus) of the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas Stock,” Arctic, 47, 247–255.
George, J. C., Zeh, J., Suydam, R., and Clark, C. (2004), “Abundance and Population Trend (1978–2001) of Western Arctic Bowhead Whales Surveyed Near Barrow, Alaska,” Marine Mammal Science, 20 (4), 755–773.
Koski, W. R., Rugh, D. J., Punt, A. E., and Zeh, J. (2006), “An Approach to Minimise Bias in Estimation of the Length-Frequency Distribution of Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus) From Aerial Photogrammetric Data,” The Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, 8 (1), 45–54.
Moore, S. E., and Reeves, R. R. (1993), “Distribution and Movement,” in The Bowhead Whale, eds. J. J. Burns, J. J. Montague, and C. J. Cowles, Lawrence, KA: Society for Marine Mammalogy, pp. 313–386.
Rugh, D. (1990), “Bowhead Whales Reidentified Through Aerial Photography Near Point Barrow, Alaska,” Report of the International Whaling Commission, 12, 289–294.
Rugh, D. J., Braham, H. W., and Miller, G. W. (1992), “Methods for Photographic Identification of Bowhead Whales, Balaena mysticetus,” Canadian Journal of Zoology, 70, 617–624.
Rugh, D. J., Koski, W., George, J., and Zeh, J. (2008), “Interyear Re-Identification of Bowhead Whales During Their Spring Migration Past Barrow, Alaska, 1984–1994,” Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, 10 (3), 195–200.
Rugh, D. J., Zeh, J. E., Koski, W. R., Baraff, L. S., Miller, G. W., and Shelden, K. E. W. (1998), “An Improved System for Scoring Photo Quality and Whale Identifiability in Aerial Photographs of Bowhead Whales,” Report of the International Whaling Commission, 48, 501–512.
Sadykova, D., and Schweder, T. (2009), “Migration Ranks for Bowhead Whales at Barrow in Spring,” in preparation.
Schweder, T. (2003), “Abundance Estimation From Photo-Identification Data: Confidence Distributions and Reduced Likelihood for Bowhead Whales off Alaska,” Biometrics, 59, 976–985.
Schweder, T., and Hjort, N. L. (2002), “Confidence and Likelihood,” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 29, 309–332.
Schweder, T., and Sadykova, D. (2009), “Information Dynamics in Capture–Recapture,” in preparation.
Shelden, K. E. W., DeMaster, D. P., Rugh, D. J., and Olson, A. M. (2001), “Developing Classification Criteria Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act: Bowhead Whales as a Case Study,” Conservation Biology, 15 (5), 1300–1307.
Skaug, H. J., and Fournier, D. (2006), “Automatic Approximation of the Marginal Likelihood in Non-Gaussian Hierarchical Models,” Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, 699–709.
Skaug, H. J., Oien, N., Schweder, T., and Bothun, G. (2004), “Abundance of Minke Whales (Balaenoptera acutorostata) in the Northeast Atlantic: Variability in Time and Space,” Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 61, 870–886.
Zeh, J., Poole, D., Miller, G., Koski, W., Baraff, L., and Rugh, D. (2002), “Survival of Bowhead Whales, Balaena mysticetus, Estimated From 1981–1998 Photoidentification Data,” Biometrics, 58, 832–840.
Zeh, J. E., and Punt, A. E. (2005), “Updated 1978–2001 Abundance Estimates and Their Correlations for the Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort Seas Stock of Bowhead Whales,” The Journal of Cetacean Research and Management, 7 (2), 169–175.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Schweder, T., Sadykova, D., Rugh, D. et al. Population Estimates From Aerial Photographic Surveys of Naturally and Variably Marked Bowhead Whales. JABES 15, 1–19 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-009-0002-1
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-009-0002-1