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Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) Habitat Suitability by Using Ensemble Modeling in Asia Wetlands

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Abstract

The Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) is the third rarest and the most endangered crane species in the world. This study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on Siberian Crane habitat suitability of breeding range and wintering range in Asia Wetlands by using ensemble modeling under future climate scenarios before the year 2050. In this regard, we used 4 modeling methods, Surface Range Envelop (SRE), Random Forest (RF), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to determine the relationships between the species occurrence and bioclimatic variables under the ensemble framework by using Biomod2 and R software. The results showed that the AUC values were greater than 0.9 and functioning of all models was excellent. The Temperature Seasonality and Temperature Annual Range in the breeding range and Temperature Seasonality and Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter in the wintering range had the most important role for habitat suitability of this species and respectively 105.64% and 136.27% changes was justified in Siberian Crane habitat suitability. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenario for Siberian Crane breeding and wintering range, it is possible that climate change will cause a 100% loss of suitable habitat in West Sibera, and a 25.28% loss in Iran and China by 2050. The results of this study can be used in planning and conservation of crane species.

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Data Availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

All personnel and the Department of Environment and Arak University who have collaborated with the authors in the recent study are appreciated.

Funding

This work was supported by Arak University (Grant numbers GH.F.98/57).

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  1. Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, 38156-8- 8349, Arak, Iran

    Amir Ansari

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The author contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis was performed by Amir Ansari. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Amir Ansari and author commented on previous versions of the manuscript. The author read and approved the final manuscript.

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Ansari, A. Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) Habitat Suitability by Using Ensemble Modeling in Asia Wetlands. Wetlands 43, 4 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-022-01646-3

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