Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Future climate change scenarios over Korea using a multi-nested downscaling system: A pilot study

  • Published:
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study examines a scenario of future summer climate change for the Korean peninsula using a multi-nested regional climate system. The global-scale scenario from the ECHAM5, which has a 200 km grid, was downscaled to a 50 km grid over Asia using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). This allowed us to obtain large-scale forcing information for a one-way, double-nested Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that consists of a 12 km grid over Korea and a 3 km grid near Seoul. As a pilot study prior to the multi-year simulation work the years 1995 and 2055 were selected for the present and future summers. This RSM-WRF multi-nested downscaling system was evaluated by examining a downscaled climatology in 1995 with the largescale forcing from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The changes in monsoonal flows over East Asia and the associated precipitation change scenario over Korea are highlighted. It is found that the RSM-WRF system is capable of reproducing large-scale features associated with the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its associated hydro-climate when it is nested by the NCEP/DOE reanalysis. The ECHAM5-based downscaled climate for the present (1995) summer is found to suffer from a weakening of the low-level jet and sub-tropical high when compared the reanalysis-based climate. Predicted changes in summer monsoon circulations between 1995 and 2055 include a strengthened subtropical high and an intensified mid-level trough. The resulting projected summer precipitation is doubled over much of South Korea, accompanied by a pronounced surface warming with a maximum of about 2 K. It is suggested that downscaling strategy of this study, with its cloud-resolving scale, makes it suitable for providing high-resolution meteorological data with which to derive hydrology or air pollution models.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Byun, D. W., and K. L. Schere, 2006: Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Appl. Mech. Rev., 59, 51–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cha, D.-H., and D.-K. Lee, 2009: Reduction of systematic errors in regional climate simulations of the summer monsoon over East Asia and the western North Pacific by applying the spectral nudging technique, J. Geophys. Res, 114, D14108, doi:10.1029/2008JD011176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu, C, S. Wang, Z. Xiong, W. J. Gutowski, D.-K. Lee, J. L. McGregor, Y. Sato, H. Kato, J.-W. Kim, and M.-S. Suh, 2005: Regional climate model intercomparison project for Asia. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 257–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi, F., J. W. Hurrell, M. R. Marinucci, and M. Beniston, 1997: Elevation dependence of the surface climate change signal: A model study. J. Climate, 10, 288–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ham, S.-R., S.-J. Park, C.-H. Bang, B.-J. Jung, and S.-Y. Hong, 2005: Intercomparison of the East-Asian summer monsoon on 11–18 July 2004, simulated by WRF, MM5, and RSM models. Atmosphere, 15, 91–99. (in Korean with English abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Han, J., and J. Roads, 2004: US climate sensitivity simulated with the NCEP regional spectral model. Climatic Change, 62, 115–154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong, S.-Y., and A. Leetmaa, 1999: An evaluation of the NCEP RSM for regional climate modeling. J. Climate, 12, 592–609.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • __, H.-M. H. Juang, and D.-K. Lee, 1999: Evaluation of a regional spectral model for the East Asian monsoon case studies for July 1987 and 1988. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 77, 553–572.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurkmans, R., W. Terink, R. Uijlenhoet, P. Torfs, D. Jacob, and P. A. Troch, 2010: Changes in streamflow dynamics in the Rhine basin under three high-resolution regional climate scenarios. J. Climate, 23, 679–699.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Im, E.-S., E. Coppola, F. Giorgi, and X. Bi, 2010: Validation of a high resolution regional climate model for the Alpine region and effects of a subgrid-scale topography and land use representation. J. Climate, 23, 1854–1873.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tigora, and H. L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

  • Juang, H.-M. H., S.-Y. Hong, and M. Kanamitsu, 1997: The NCEP regional spectral model: An update. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2125–2143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamaru, H., and M. Kanamitsu, 2007: Scale-selective bias correction in a downscaling of global analysis using a regional model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 334–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu, M., K. Yoshimura, Y.-B. Yhang, and S.-Y. Hong, 2010: Errors of interannual variability and trend in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D17115, doi:10.1029/2009JD013511.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang, H., and S.-Y. Hong, 2008: An assessment of the land surface parameters on the simulated regional climate circulations: The 1997 and 1998 East Asian summer monsoon cases. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15121, doi:10.1029/2007JD009499.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, J.-E., and S. -Y. Hong, 2007: Impact of soil moisture anomalies on summer rainfall over East Asia: A regional climate model study. J. Climate, 20, 5732–5743.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleinn, J., C. Frei, J. Gurtz, D. Lüthi, P. L. Vidale, and C. Schär, 2005: Hydrologic simulations in the Rhine basin driven by a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D04102, doi:10.1029/2004JD005143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koo, M.-S., and S.-Y. Hong, 2010: Diurnal variations of simulated precipitation over East Asia in two regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D05105, doi:10.1029/2009JD012574.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kwadijk, J. C. J., and J. Rotmans, 1995: The impact of climate change on the river Rhine: a scenario study. Climatic Change, 30, 397–425.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leung, L. R., and Y. Qian, 2003: The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1025–1043.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Y.-Q., R. Avissar, and F. Giorgi, 1996: Simulation with the regional climate model RegCM2 of extremely anomalous precipitation during the 1991 East Asian flood: An evaluation study. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 26199–26216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Middelkoop H., K. Daamen, D. Gellens, W. Grabs, J. C. J. Kwadijk, H. Lang, B.W.A.H. Parmet, B. Schädler, J. Schulla, and K. Wilke, 2001: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Climatic Change, 49, 105–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic, N., and Coauthors, 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp.

  • Pielke, R., and R. Avissar, 1990: Influence of landscape structure on local and regional climate. Landscape Ecol., 4, 133–155.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 2003: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. Part I: Model description. Technical Report 349, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology/MPI-Report 354.

  • Sasaki, H., H. Kida, T. Koide, and M. Chiba, 1995: The performance of long-term integrations of a limited area model with the spectral boundary coupling method. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 73, 165–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Seol, K.-H., and S.-Y. Hong, 2009: Relationship between the Tibetan snow in spring and the East Asian summer monsoon in 2003: A global and regional model study. J. Climate, 22, 2095–2110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shin, H., and S.-Y. Hong, 2009: Quantitative precipitation forecast experiments of heavy rainfall over Jeju Island on 14–16 September 2007 using the WRF model. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 71–89.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, 2008: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR technical note, NCAR/TN-475+STR.

  • Song, J.-H., H.-S., Kang, Y.-H. Byun, and S.-Y. Hong, 2010: Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian summer monsoon in a regional climate model. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 743–759.

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 78, 2539–2558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yhang, Y.-B., and S.-Y. Hong, 2008: Improved physical processes in a regional climate model and their impact on the simulated summer monsoon circulations over East Asia. J. Climate, 21, 963–979.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Global Environment Laboratory, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea

    Song-You Hong & Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim

  2. Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Korea

    Nan-Kyoung Moon & Jong-Won Kim

  3. Division of Strategic Assessment, Korea Environment Institute, 290 Jinheung St., Eunpyeonggu, Seoul, 22-706, Korea

    Nan-Kyoung Moon

Authors
  1. Song-You Hong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nan-Kyoung Moon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jong-Won Kim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nan-Kyoung Moon.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hong, SY., Moon, NK., Lim, KS.S. et al. Future climate change scenarios over Korea using a multi-nested downscaling system: A pilot study. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 46, 425–435 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0024-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0024-1

Key words

Search

Navigation