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Geospatial analysis and simulation of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Shyok Basin of Pakistan

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Abstract

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is prone to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Physical monitoring of such a large area on regular basis is a challenging task especially when the temporal and spatial extent of the hazard is highly variable. The study has been conducted in the Shyok sub-basin of UIB, where there are several human settlements which are endangered due to the GLOF hazard. Sudden breaches in the unstable moraine dams adjoining receding glaciers may occur because of rapid and huge accumulation of turbulent water in the glacial lakes. The purpose of this study was to map the two potentially dangerous glacial lakes and simulate the associated hazard in the downward settlements using HEC-RAS in the GIS environment using Landsat 7 remote sensing data. The ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is utilized to detect flow accumulation of glacial hazard involving slope, elevation, and orientation of the mountain glaciers. The study results have revealed that settlements of the Shyok Basin are threatened by the GLOF hazard. Keeping in view the seasonal growth of the two potentially dangerous glacial lakes of the Shyok Basin, a low discharge of 100 m3/s from both lakes can affect 20%, whereas a moderate discharge of 300 m3/s and a high discharge of 500 m3/s, respectively, can impact 30% and 40% of the Barah village habitat. The results of the study can provide a platform for the establishment of an early warning and monitoring system to minimize the impact of future GLOFs.

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Acknowledgements

Authors are highly grateful to Almighty Allah, the most beneficent, the most merciful, for giving me strength, courage and resources to complete this research. Authors also sincerely obliged to IGIS-NUST for providing me platform of a knowledge base during the study period at IGIS-NUST. We cannot but appreciate the constructive suggestions, criticisms and encouragement of Dr. Javed Iqbal (IGIS) to improve the research work and paper write up. We remain indebted to Dr. Ijaz Hussain (IGIS), Dr. Manzoor Hussain (SCEE) and Dr. Anwaar Ahmed (NIT) who encouraged in the first place to put in for this research paper. We are very thankful to SUPARCO for cooperation and help in this research work. We acknowledge PMD (Pakistan) for the provision of data support for this paper.

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  1. School of Civil and Environment Engineering, NUST, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Naseem Gilany & Javed Iqbal

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  1. Naseem Gilany
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  2. Javed Iqbal
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Correspondence to Naseem Gilany.

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Gilany, N., Iqbal, J. Geospatial analysis and simulation of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Shyok Basin of Pakistan. Environ Earth Sci 79, 139 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8867-y

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