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Analyzing and modeling of a large river basin dynamics applying integrated cellular automata and Markov model

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Abstract

Historical and exact information about the land use/land cover change is very important for regional sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to determine the rapid changes in land use/land cover (LULC) pattern due to agriculture expansion, environmental calamities such as flood and government policies over Upper Narmada basin, India. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 were used to analyze and monitor the changes in LULC with an overall accuracy of more than 85%. Results revealed a potential decrease in natural vegetation (− 9.52%) due to the expansion of settlement (+ 0.52%) and cropland (+ 9.43%) from 1990 to 2015. In the present study, Cellular Automata and Markov (CA–Markov), an integrated tool was used to project the short-term LULC map of year 2030. The projected LULC (2030) indicated the expansion of built-up area along with the cropland and degradation in the vegetation area. The outcomes from the study can help as a guiding tool for protection of natural vegetation and the management of the built-up area. Additionally, it will help in devising the strategies to utilize every bit of land in the study area for decision makers.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to Ministry of Human Resources and Development (MHRD), Government of India, for the financial support during this work. They are also grateful to the USGS for providing the open access Landsat for the study. Authors sincerely thank Dr. Bhaskar Nikam, Scientist at Indian institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS-ISRO), Dehradun (Uttarakhand), India, for his valuable support during the work.

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  1. Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttrakhand, India

    Brij Kishor Pandey & Deepak Khare

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  1. Brij Kishor Pandey
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Correspondence to Brij Kishor Pandey.

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Pandey, B.K., Khare, D. Analyzing and modeling of a large river basin dynamics applying integrated cellular automata and Markov model. Environ Earth Sci 76, 779 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-7133-4

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