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Event tree analysis for rockfall risk assessment along a strategic mountainous transportation route

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Abstract

A quantitative risk analysis has been performed in a tourist area of Sicily (Italy) with the aim of assessing the rockfall risk along an important transportation corridor, crossing a geologically complex area and poor rock masses. The procedure followed herein is based on an event tree analysis, which was properly customized to take into account the peculiarity of the area and of the road path. Rock mass surveys, trajectory simulations and probabilistic models are proposed with the aim of calculating the probability related to possible scenarios in case of rockfalls. Achieved outcomes demonstrate that such procedure, resulting from a multifaceted study, is a reliable tool, which can be taken as reference to calibrate further risk models in comparable contexts of the world, where rockfall threaten communication routes. This would represent a helpful instrument to the scientific community and to local authorities dealing with one of the most troublesome natural phenomena affecting the public safety.

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Acknowledgements

Authors would like to express their gratitude to Prof. D.M. Cruden and R. Macciotta Ph.D. for having provided some of their research papers, which represented a great contribution to this article. Thanks are also extended to the editor and the two anonymous reviewers who handled this paper during the reviewing process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Università degli Studi di Catania, Corso Italia 57, 95129, Catania, Italy

    S. Mineo, G. Pappalardo & A. D’Urso

  2. Department of Earth, Environment and Resources Sciences, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Largo San Marcellino 10, 80138, Naples, Italy

    D. Calcaterra

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  1. S. Mineo
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Correspondence to G. Pappalardo.

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Mineo, S., Pappalardo, G., D’Urso, A. et al. Event tree analysis for rockfall risk assessment along a strategic mountainous transportation route. Environ Earth Sci 76, 620 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6958-1

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