Predicting land at risk from wind erosion using an index-based framework under a climate change scenario in Durango, Mexico

Abstract

Land degradation takes place primarily in drylands which make up for almost 50% of the cultivated lands, globally. The 90% of Mexican territory is currently experiencing land deterioration mainly due to anthropogenic land use changes and still expecting further deterioration. While efforts have been directed toward the impact of land use changes on wind erosion in dryland ecosystems, there is still high uncertainty on the nature of wind erosion sources. This challenge was addressed by developing and evaluating a method for completing spatial assessments of vulnerable zones currently experiencing accelerated soil erosion and to predict those areas where soil erosion is likely to occur in the near future. This approach is tested over a study area in the Comarca Lagunera, Durango, Mexico. Spatiotemporal patterns and variability in soil erosion and aridity were evaluated, as well as the identification of key characteristics driving soil degradation in the area. Results demonstrate that the suggested methodology can be effectively used to spatially delineate potential locations susceptible to soil degradation (e.g., moderate-risk zones and/or high-risk zones), not only in the present time but also to predict those locations in the near future. This provides the opportunity of spatially defined areas of interest based on specific relationships between edaphological properties and its vulnerability to climate variability. This type of approach could be valuable to identify critical locations that should be treated as a priority for monitoring and managing accelerated soil degradation.