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Prognostic validity of talent orientation in soccer

Prognostische Validität der Talentorientierung im Fußball

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Abstract

Several talent-screening programs conducted within elementary schools have implemented motor diagnostics to introduce children to groups of sports including both game and specific sports, the latter of which includes gymnastics, skiing, and tennis. However, as in most other sports, the predictive value for soccer regarding such early testing is unclear. This prospective cohort study evaluated the mid-term prognostic validity of general motor tests as well as a soccer-specific score calculated from a test battery. The sample consisted of N = 2965 U9 age group of children from the Fulda Movement Check (FMC). The FMC is a basic check comprised of two anthropometric parameters and eight general items of the German Motor Test 6–18 by Boes and Schlenker with the addition of a ball throw. The test data were collected from the second grade classes of 2011–2014. The soccer competition performance of those children who chose soccer (n = 316) up to the end of the season 2016/17 (September 30, 2017) was recorded. This group of U12–U15 players was then assigned individually to four different competition levels. The prognostic validity of the motor tests was determined using analysis of variance, odds ratios, and a discriminant analysis. All diagnostic methods exhibited medium to high prognostic validity over the 2‑ to 6‑year time span from the talent screening and talent orientation period to the later soccer competitions in the early adolescent U12–U15 age groups. The prognostic relevance of the nine general motor tests was confirmed.

Zusammenfassung

Üblicherweise nutzen Talentsuchprogramme, die im Grundschulalter durchgeführt werden, motorische Tests, um Kindern eine ihrem Eignungsprofil entsprechende Sportart zu zuzuweisen; darunter fallen beispielsweise Mannschaftssportarten oder Individualsportarten wie Turnen, Skilauf oder Tennis. Hierbei scheint allerdings der Erfolgswert dieser frühen Talentorientierung in den meisten Sportarten – so auch im Fußball – ungeklärt. In der vorliegenden prospektiven Kohortenstudie wurde die mittelfristige prognostische Validität allgemeiner motorischer Tests sowie eines, aus einer Testbatterie abgeleiteten, fußballspezifischen Testwertes untersucht. Die vorliegende Stichprobe besteht aus 2965 Kindern der Altersstufe U9 des Fuldaer Bewegungschecks. Beim Fuldaer Bewegungscheck handelt es sich um eine Testbatterie, bestehend aus zwei anthropometrischen Parametern und acht allgemeinen Bewegungsaufgaben des Deutschen Motorik-Tests 6–18, zusätzlich erweitert um einen Ballweitwurftest. Die Testdaten wurden in den Grundschulklassen der Jahre 2011–2014 erhoben. Für die Studie wurde nachfolgend die Wettkampfleitung zum Ende der Saison 2016/2017 (30. September) derjenigen Kinder betrachtet, die an der Testung teilnahmen und im Nachhinein die Sportart Fußball ausübten (n = 316). Diese Gruppe von Spielern der Altersstufe U12–U15 wurde dann individuell vier verschiedenen Wettbewerbsstufen zugeteilt. Die prognostische Validität des Motoriktests (Fuldaer Bewegungscheck) wurde anhand einer Varianzanalyse, Odds Ratios und einer Diskriminanzanalyse ermittelt. Alle diagnostischen Verfahren zeigten eine mittlere bis hohe prognostische Validität über die Zeitspanne von vier bis sechs Jahren – von der Talentsuche und Talentorientierungsphase bis zu späteren Fußballturnieren in der Altersgruppe der frühen Jugend (U12–U15). Die prognostische Relevanz der neun allgemeinen motorischen Tests wurde somit bestätigt.

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Notes

  1. Time for a 20 m linear running sprint; measurement by means of light gates (Brower Timing Systems; Draper, UT, USA); error correction of timing was 0.26 s; starting position was 0.3 m behind the start line.

  2. 15-s sideward jumping.

  3. 3 × 2 trials stepping backward on a 3.0, 4.5 and 6.0 cm wide beam.

  4. Bend forward.

  5. Timed push-ups and sit-ups with number of repetitions within 40 s.

  6. Standing long jump.

  7. 6-min run around a volleyball pitch.

  8. Ball weight: 80 g; both feet on ground behind a line; no step or run-up; measurement perpendicular to measuring tape; accuracy: 0.1 m.

  9. GMT in addition to Ball throw; F(3;312) = 12.99; p < 0.001; η2 = 0.111.

  10. F(3;312) = 10.03; p < 0.001; η2 = 0.087.

  11. F(3;312) = 10.02; p < 0.001; η2 = 0.086.

  12. F(3;312) = 6.83; p < 0.001; η2 = 0.061.

  13. F(3;312) = 6.51; p < 0.001; η2 = 0.057.

  14. F(3;312) = 6.00; p < 0.01; η2 = 0.053.

  15. F(3;312) = 4.85; p < 0.01; η2 = 0.044.

  16. F(3;312) = 4.81; p < 0.01; η2 = 0.043.

  17. F(3;312) = 3.74; p < 0.05; η2 = 0.034.

  18. F(3;312) = 2.73; p < 0.05; η2 = 0.025.

  19. F(3;312) = 1.29; p = 0.278.

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Acknowledgements

This study is part of the research project “talent identification” which was supported by the German Institute of Sport Science (Bonn, Germany). Also, we would like to thank the authorities of the city of Fulda, the Fulda district authorities and the participating elementary schools for supporting the Fulda Movement campaign since 2010.

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  1. Institute of Sports Science, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 30, 95440, Bayreuth, Germany

    Andreas Hohmann, Maximilian Siener & Renye He

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  1. Andreas Hohmann
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Correspondence to Maximilian Siener.

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A. Hohmann, M. Siener and R. He declare that they have no competing interests.

The author did not conduct any studies with human or animal participants for this article. As for other studies cited in this article, information on ethical guidelines may be found in the respective sources.

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Hohmann, A., Siener, M. & He, R. Prognostic validity of talent orientation in soccer. Ger J Exerc Sport Res 48, 478–488 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-018-0549-5

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