Abstract
This study examines the impact of chance in football using the case of goal scoring. For this purpose, chance in goal scoring is defined as goals involving uncontrollable or not planned aspects. “Chance variables” were defined according to the principle of downward estimation, i.e. when one of these variables is involved this is an uncontrollable or not planned aspect of scoring a goal, although chance may also have an impact in instances other than those collected. Six “chance variables” were identified: deflection, rebound, goalkeeper involvement, post/bar hits, long distance shots, and defence involvement. In the 2011/2012 season, the 875 goals in German Bundesliga and the 1056 goals in English Premier League were examined for the presence of these variables. Of the goals examined, 47.0% showed at least one chance variable (deflection: 4.8%; rebound: 9.4%, goalkeeper: 2.5%; post/bar: 5.2%; distance: 13.1%, and defence: 22.5%). The two leagues differed significantly only in the sense of more goalkeeper interventions in the Bundesliga and more distance goals in the Premier League. The rate of chance-goals drops significantly with the number of prior goals in a match (χ2 = 17.59; p = 0.004). In both leagues, there is no significant correlation between final ranking and the percentage of chance-goals scored or conceded. If one accepts the selected chance variables as indicators of uncontrollable or not planned aspects of scoring, the results of this study can be taken as empirical proof for the existence and widespread prevalence of chance involvement in goal scoring in football with many interesting consequences.
Zusammenfassung
In der vorliegenden Studie wurde der Einfluss des Zufalls im Fußball am Beispiel der Torerzielung untersucht. Hierzu wurden Zufälle bei der Torerzielung als Tore mit nicht kontrollierbaren oder ungeplanten Komponenten definiert. „Zufallsvariablen“ wurden gemäß dem Prinzip der Abschätzung nach unten definiert, das heißt, wenn eine dieser Variablen beteiligt ist, stellt dies eine nicht kontrollierbare oder ungeplante Komponente der Torerzielung dar, auch wenn in den nicht erfassten Fällen ebenso der Zufall eine Rolle gespielt haben kann. Sechs „Zufallsvariablen“ wurden identifiziert: Abgefälscht, Abpraller, Torhüterbeteiligung, Pfosten‑/Lattentreffer, Fernschüsse und Abwehrbeteiligung. Für die Spielzeit 2011/2012 wurden die 875 Tore in der deutschen Bundesliga und die 1056 Tore in der englischen Premier League auf das Vorliegen dieser Variablen überprüft. Ein Anteil von 47,0 % der untersuchten Tore wies mindestens eine Zufallsvariable auf (Abgefälscht: 4,8 %; Abpraller: 9,4 %, Torhüterbeteiligung: 2,5 %; Pfosten‑/Lattentreffer: 5,2 %; Fernschuss: 13,1 %; Abwehrbeteiligung: 22,5 %). Die beiden Ligen unterschieden sich nur signifikant durch mehr Torhütereingriffe in der Bundesliga und mehr Tore aus der Distanz in der Premier League. Der Anteil der Zufallstore sank signifikant mit der Zahl der zuvor in einem Spiel erzielten Tore (χ2 = 17,59; p = 0,004). In keiner der beiden Ligen bestand eine signifikante Korrelation zwischen der abschließenden Tabellenplatzierung und dem prozentualen Anteil erzielter oder zugelassener Zufallstore. Unter der Annahme, dass die ausgewählten Zufallsvariablen Indikatoren nicht kontrollierbarer oder ungeplanter Komponenten der Torerzielung sind, können die Ergebnisse dieser Studie als empirischer Beleg für die Zufallsbeteiligung und ihr häufiges Vorkommen bei der Torerzielung im Fußball betrachtet werden – mit vielen interessanten Auswirkungen.
Notes
If one would delete these two “critical” variables from the list of chance variables, despite the arguments quoted above, one would obtain a reduction of the overall chance rate of 47.0% by 7.3% (distance) and 16.9% (defence). Considering only the chance mechanism of uncontrollable events by eliminating distance and defence would lead to an overall rate of 20.3%.
There is an early predecessor of this study (Lames, 1999) published in an informal conference proceedings. Using very similarly defined chance variables 46.6% chance goals were found in a sample of 920 goals. The results for the six chance variables were goalkeeper, 4.7%; deflection, 2.5%; post/bar, 4.5%; rebound, 6.7%; distance, 13.2%; and defence, 22.2%.
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The author thanks Christian Dietrich for collecting data.
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M. Lames declares that he has no competing interests.
This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
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Lames, M. Chance involvement in goal scoring in football – an empirical approach. Ger J Exerc Sport Res 48, 278–286 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-018-0518-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12662-018-0518-z