Abstract
The aim of this study was to estimate the centenarian populations of Australia’s states from 1981 to 2012 and quantify the extent to which increases were driven by changes in births, survival and net migration. Centenarian numbers and cohort survival histories were estimated from death counts using the extinct cohort and survivor ratio methods. A decomposition method was applied to determine the relative contributions of births, cohort survival and net migration to population growth. Centenarian populations in all Australia’s states increased hugely over the three decades to 2012, driven mainly by improvements in survival from age 85 to 100. Survival improvement at younger ages also contributed to higher centenarian numbers, but not to the same extent as at the very high ages. The later arrival of the gold rush in Western Australia resulted in significant increases in births and decreases in net migration between the cohorts considered. Continued increases in births and survival improvement mean that centenarian numbers are likely to continue increasing rapidly in coming decades.
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Acknowledgments
This paper was completed while the author was a Ph.D. student at the University of Queensland. She gratefully acknowledges receipt of a UQ scholarship. The author is also grateful for helpful comments received from Tom Wilson.
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Terblanche, W. Explaining the substantial growth of centenarian populations in Australia’s states, 1981 to 2012. J Pop Research 32, 81–93 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9143-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-015-9143-y