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A revised procedure to compute future land losses in the delta of the Mekong River

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Abstract

The delta of the Mekong River is undergoing massive changes which impact future inundation scenarios. The future land losses are currently built by removing from the elevation map a constant relative sea-level rise (SLR). This SLR is typically the 2019 IPCC projection of 0.6 to 1.1 m of absolute SLR expected in the year 2100 if the greenhouse gas emissions (GHE) remain at the high rates of the RCP8.5, which is roughly 15 mm/year. It is shown here as this approach is inappropriate. The present absolute rate of SLR is more likely less than 1 mm/year as indicated by the tide gauges (TGs) than about 3 mm/year of the satellite altimeter. The present acceleration is small. The strongly variable subsidence rate across the delta is more than 10 times the present absolute rate or SLR. Subsidence, which is mostly driven by the withdrawal of groundwater, is not constant in time. It will change with the demand for water for agriculture and other uses, and the progress of salinization and land loss because of inundations. Thus, predictions of future inundations are much more complex than the simplistic representations proposed today, and the work introduces the key requirements for a more accurate assessment procedure.

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  1. Independent Scientist, Johnsonville Road, Johnsonville, Wellington, 6037, New Zealand

    Alberto Boretti

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  1. Alberto Boretti
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Boretti, A. A revised procedure to compute future land losses in the delta of the Mekong River. Arab J Geosci 15, 1440 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10713-2

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