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Recent trends and variability of extreme rainfall indices over Lebna basin and neighborhood in the last 40 years

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Abstract  

Change in extreme climatic events, especially rainfall, is an important sign of climate change. Characterizing the evolution of extreme rainfall helps to identify and quantify the effect of climate change on agricultural, social, economic, and environmental sectors. This study aims to assess aspects related to the changing trends of the rainfall extremes in Lebna basin, situated in Cap Bon, Tunisia, in a Mediterranean context. The temporal variation of annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) and annual rainy days number (ARDN) were assessed using data from 1980 to 2019 at eleven rain gauges stationed throughout Lebna watershed and neighborhood. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trend. Also, four break tests were applied to validate results found by the previous tests and to locate breakpoints if they exist. The assessment of AMDR tendency marked a dominant upward trend in all studied rain gauges, but statistically not significant, excluding one observation station (Takelsa ribereau), wherever an increase is recorded with 0.816 mm.year−1 at p = 0.1. Also, break tests can’t lead to detect a precise break date for this variable. Results of annual rainy days number underline a significant increase of the ADRN for the assumed significance levels (0.001, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) for 54.4% of chosen rain gauges (Bge Sidi Abdelmonem aval, Hir Lebna rojat, Menzel Tmim ctv, Wadi Labid bge, Takelsa Ribereau, and Gazolinage factory stations). The rise magnitude ranges between 0.2 and 1.2 day.year−1. Identically, break tests (Pettitt test, Hubert segmentation test, Lee Heghinian’s Bayesian method, and Statistic U of Buishand) detect an increase for annual rainy days number (ARDN) in the same rain gauge, and a breakpoint is essentially identified in 2002.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Georesources Laboratory, Water Research and Technology Centre, Borj Cedria Ecopark, PO Box 273 , 8020, Soliman, Tunisia

    Sameh Chargui, Rafika Zarrour & Rabeb El Mouaddeb

  2. Faculty of Sciences of Sfax, Sokra Road, 3000, Sfax, Tunisia

    Rafika Zarrour

  3. National Institute of Agronomy of Tunisia, 43 Avenue Charles Nicolle, Mahrajène, 1082, Tunis, Tunisia

    Rabeb El Mouaddeb & Walid Ben Khelifa

Authors
  1. Sameh Chargui
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  2. Rafika Zarrour
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  3. Rabeb El Mouaddeb
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  4. Walid Ben Khelifa
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Correspondence to Sameh Chargui.

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Responsible Editor: Fethi Lachaal

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Water Quality, Global Changes and Groundwater Responses

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Chargui, S., Zarrour, R., El Mouaddeb, R. et al. Recent trends and variability of extreme rainfall indices over Lebna basin and neighborhood in the last 40 years. Arab J Geosci 15, 203 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09334-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09334-y

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