Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling trend changes of mean annual exposure to PM2.5 particles in the Middle East countries via growth mixture models

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rapid economic expansion, industrialization, urbanization, and construction in the Middle East have led to an increase in ambient air pollution. This study was devoted to model the 28-year trend changes of the mean annual exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5 particles) in the Middle East countries. Data used in the current study includes the mean annual exposure of PM2.5 air pollution (micrograms per cubic meter) for the Middle East countries during 1990 to 2017 that is compiled by the World Bank. To identify different longitudinal patterns of PM2.5, the researchers fitted growth mixture model with a different number of clusters in Mplus 7.4. The overall trend of annual exposure was rising during 1990 to 2017. Both the Bayesian information criterion and likelihood ratio test confirmed that the 2-cluster model is the best and the entropy of 0.99 confirmed a good quality in the cluster memberships. The observed pattern of exposure to PM2.5 in cluster 1, including Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen, was rising over time. On the other hand, countries in cluster 2, including Cyprus, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Oman, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey, experienced a constant level of exposure to PM2.5 from 1990 to 2017. The main longitudinal patterns of PM2.5 were identified by the proposed model. Given the harmful effects of exposure to PM2.5 particles, taking into account more investigation in the future is highly suggested.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdolahnejad A, Jafari N, Mohammadi A, Miri M, Hajizadeh Y, Nikoonahad A (2017) Cardiovascular, respiratory, and total mortality ascribed to PM10 and PM2. 5 exposure in Isfahan, Iran. J Educ Health Promot 6

  • Al-Hemoud A, Gasana J, Al-Dabbous A, Alajeel A, Al-Shatti A, Behbehani W, Malak M (2019) Exposure levels of air pollution (PM2. 5) and associated health risk in Kuwait. Environ Res 179:108730

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al-Taani AA, Nazzal Y, Howari FM, Yousef A (2019) Long-term trends in ambient fine particulate matter from 1980 to 2016 in United Arab Emirates. Environ Monit Assess 191(3):143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barzeghar V, Sarbakhsh P, Hassanvand MS, Faridi S, Gholampour A (2020) Long-term trend of ambient air PM10, PM2. 5, and O3 and their health effects in Tabriz city, Iran, during 2006–2017. Sustain Cities Soc 54:101988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bloom B, Cohen RA, Freeman G (2010) Summary health statistics for US children: National Health Interview Survey, 2009. Vital and health statistics. Series 10, Data from the National Health Survey (247): 1-82

  • Chang YS, You BJ, Kim HE (2019) Dynamic trends of fine particulate matter exposure among 190 countries. Gachon Center of Convergence Research, Working Paper Series 6

  • Chudnovsky AA, Koutrakis P, Kostinski A, Proctor SP, Garshick E (2017) Spatial and temporal variability in desert dust and anthropogenic pollution in Iraq, 1997–2010. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 67(1):17–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coskuner G, Jassim MS, Munir S (2018) Characterizing temporal variability of PM2. 5/PM10 ratio and its relationship with meteorological parameters in Bahrain. Environ Forensic 19(4):315–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ettouney RS, Zaki JG, El-Rifai MA, Ettouney HM (2010) An assessment of the air pollution data from two monitoring stations in Kuwait. Toxicol Environ Chem 92(4):655–668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiordelisi A, Piscitelli P, Trimarco B, Coscioni E, Iaccarino G, Sorriento D (2017) The mechanisms of air pollution and particulate matter in cardiovascular diseases. Heart Fail Rev 22(3):337–347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamad SH, Shafer MM, Kadhim AK, Al-Omran SM, Schauer JJ (2015) Seasonal trends in the composition and ROS activity of fine particulate matter in Baghdad, Iraq. Atmos Environ 100:102–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jassim MS, Coskuner G, Munir S (2018) Temporal analysis of air pollution and its relationship with meteorological parameters in Bahrain, 2006–2012. Arab J Geosci 11(3):62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimi A, Shirmardi M, Hadei M, Birgani YT, Neisi A, Takdastan A, Goudarzi G (2019) Concentrations and health effects of short-and long-term exposure to PM2. 5, NO2, and O3 in ambient air of Ahvaz city, Iran (2014–2017). Ecotoxicol Environ Saf 180:542–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khanum F, Chaudhry MN, Kumar P (2017) Characterization of five-year observation data of fine particulate matter in the metropolitan area of Lahore. Air Qual Atmos Health 10(6):725–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang R, Zhang B, Zhao X, Ruan Y, Lian H, Fan Z (2014) Effect of exposure to PM2. 5 on blood pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Hypertens 32(11):2130–2141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim CC, Thurston GD, Shamy M, Alghamdi M, Khoder M, Mohorjy AM, Alkhalaf AK, Brocato J, Chen LC, Costa M (2018) Temporal variations of fine and coarse particulate matter sources in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 68(2):123–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lowenthal D, Gertler A, Labib M (2014) Particulate matter source apportionment in Cairo: recent measurements and comparison with previous studies. Int J Environ Sci Technol 11(3):657–670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massoud R, Shihadeh AL, Roumié M, Youness M, Gerard J, Saliba N, Zaarour R, Abboud M, Farah W, Saliba NA (2011) Intraurban variability of PM10 and PM2. 5 in an Eastern Mediterranean city. Atmos Res 101(4):893–901

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mouzourides P, Kumar P, Neophytou MK-A (2015) Assessment of long-term measurements of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants in South-East Mediterranean. Atmos Environ 107:148–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nasser Z, Salameh P, Nasser W, Abou Abbas L, Elias E, Leveque A (2015) Outdoor particulate matter (PM) and associated cardiovascular diseases in the Middle East. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 28(4):641–661

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palacios N (2017) Air pollution and Parkinson’s disease–evidence and future directions. Rev Environ Health 32(4):303–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pikridas M, Vrekoussis M, Sciare J, Kleanthous S, Vasiliadou E, Kizas C, Savvides C, Mihalopoulos N (2018) Spatial and temporal (short and long-term) variability of submicron, fine and sub-10 μm particulate matter (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10) in Cyprus. Atmos Environ 191:79–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roumie M, Chiari M, Srour A, Sa’adeh H, Reslan A, Sultan M, Ahmad M, Calzolai G, Nava S, Zubaidi T (2016) Evaluation and mapping of PM2. 5 atmospheric aerosols in Arasia region using PIXE and gravimetric measurements. Nucl Instrum Methods Phys Res, Sect B 371:381–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saliba N, El Jam F, El Tayar G, Obeid W, Roumie M (2010) Origin and variability of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2. 5) mass concentrations over an Eastern Mediterranean city. Atmos Res 97(1-2):106–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sari MF, Tasdemir Y, Esen F (2019) Major air pollutants in Bursa, Turkey: their levels, temporal changes, interactions, and sources. Environ Forensic 20(2):182–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shamsipour M, Hassanvand MS, Gohari K, Yunesian M, Fotouhi A, Naddafi K, Sheidaei A, Faridi S, Akhlaghi AA, Rabiei K (2019) National and sub-national exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) and its attributable burden of disease in Iran from 1990 to 2016. Environ Pollut 255:113173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taghizadeh-Hesary F, Taghizadeh-Hesary F (2020) The impacts of air pollution on health and economy in Southeast Asia. Energies 13(7):1812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsiouri V, Kakosimos KE, Kumar P (2015) Concentrations, sources and exposure risks associated with particulate matter in the Middle East Area—a review. Air Qual Atmos Health 8(1):67–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeydan Ö, Wang Y (2019) Using MODIS derived aerosol optical depth to estimate ground-level PM2. 5 concentrations over Turkey. Atmos Pollut Res 10(5):1565–1576

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran

    Gashtasb Mardani

  2. Student Research Committee, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran

    Mahdiyeh Alikhani Faradonbeh & Zahra Fatahian Kelishadrokhi

  3. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Rahmatieh Educational Complex, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran

    Hadi Raeisi Shahraki

  4. Modeling in Health Research center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran

    Hadi Raeisi Shahraki

Authors
  1. Gashtasb Mardani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mahdiyeh Alikhani Faradonbeh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zahra Fatahian Kelishadrokhi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hadi Raeisi Shahraki
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Gashtasb Mardani, Mahdiyeh Alikhani Faradonbeh, and Hadi Raeisi Shahraki. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Gashtasb Mardani, Zahra Fatahian Kelishadrokhi, and Hadi Raeisi Shahraki. All authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hadi Raeisi Shahraki.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel

Supplementary Information

The source of reported data in each country was prepared as a supplement file.

ESM 1

(XLSX 9 kb).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Mardani, G., Alikhani Faradonbeh, M., Fatahian Kelishadrokhi, Z. et al. Modeling trend changes of mean annual exposure to PM2.5 particles in the Middle East countries via growth mixture models. Arab J Geosci 14, 576 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06855-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06855-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation