Abstract
Urban green spaces (UGS) are known for providing a cooling effect by evapotranspiration, shade, and by altering the albedo. Heat mitigation by UGS reduces the space cooling demand, provides comfort, and enhances productivity. Rapid urbanization in developing countries has resulted in dwindling green spaces and their protective role is often neglected. We have quantified the heat mitigation by UGS using the InVEST model (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) for present and future scenarios of Nagpur City which is situated in a heatwave-affected zone. Four future plausible scenarios were generated with a combination of drivers—economic development and commitment to promoting UGS, using the two-axis scenario analysis method. The simulated UGS in each future scenario (by allowing 10% variation in the land use) is utilized for quantification of heat mitigation and energy conserved. In comparison with the present situation, 21–29% less space cooling energy is conserved in scenarios driven by economic development (least commitment to UGS), whereas 17% more energy is conserved when UGS are promoted. In similar lines, the average temperature is increased by 0.5–0.7 °C when UGS are neglected, while the temperature dropped by 0.5 °C when UGS are promoted in Nagpur City. The methodology presents an integration of scenario analysis with heat mitigation modeling which can enable urban planners and researchers to improve their understanding of the ecological structure of urban centers and can aid in appreciating the potential of UGS in heat mitigation for human wellbeing.
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Abbreviations
- CC:
-
Cooling capacity
- CFD:
-
Computational fluid dynamics
- ET:
-
Evapotranspiration
- HM:
-
Heat mitigation
- InVEST:
-
Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs
- LULC:
-
Land use land cover
- NMC:
-
Nagpur Municipal Corporation
- QGIS:
-
Quantum geographic information system
- SDG:
-
Sustainable development goals
- TR:
-
Tons of refrigeration
- UGS:
-
Urban green spaces
- UHI:
-
Urban heat island
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Acknowledgments
The authors sincerely thank the support extended by the Director of the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur, for carrying out this work. The authors acknowledge the services of the Knowledge Resource Center with reference number CSIR-NEERI/KRC/2020/MARCH/CTMD/1. The authors also acknowledge the language editing services of Dr. Ashok Kadaverugu.
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Conceptualization: Rakesh Kadaverugu; Methodology: Rakesh Kadaverugu, Chandrakant Gurav, Ankush Rai, and Asheesh Sharma; Formal analysis and investigation: Rakesh Kadaverugu; writing—original draft preparation: Rakesh Kadaverugu; Writing—review and editing: Rakesh Kadaverugu and Chandrasekhar Matli; Supervision: Rajesh Biniwale and Chandrasekhar Matli.
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Highlights
• Presented a methodology to integrate heat mitigation modeling with scenario analysis for urban policy planning.
• If existing green spaces are converted into built infrastructure, 21–29% less space cooling energy is conserved and the temperature rises by 0.5–0.7 °C.
• By doubling the present green cover in Nagpur City, 17% additional space cooling energy can be conserved, and ambient temperature drops by 0.5 °C.
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Kadaverugu, R., Gurav, C., Rai, A. et al. Quantification of heat mitigation by urban green spaces using InVEST model—a scenario analysis of Nagpur City, India. Arab J Geosci 14, 82 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-06380-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-06380-w