Abstract
The current research examines the temporal and spatial distribution of drought in Gabes Basin (South-Eastern Tunisia), observed over the last four decades. Monthly data of precipitation, registered in nine synoptic stations spread over the watershed for the period extending from 1977 to 2015, were used to determine the standardized precipitation index to characterize drought. The SPIs displayed results, as computed at 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 months, helped define the periods of rainfall excess and deficit, corresponding to wet and dry periods, respectively. The relevant results proved to highlight a significant variability in the SPI-associated values. On the short-term scale, the reached results proved to display a frequent fluctuation exceeding the standards, while the long-term scale relating results appeared to indicate that the dry and wet periods turned out to be rather pronounced. Furthermore, by the increasing of time scales, the extension of drought conditions will increase. On the medium and long terms, however, dry spells characterized with long periods become less frequent. Thus, the most remarkable periods in drought intensities, durations, and extensions were detected during the end of 1980 and the beginning of 2000 for different rainfall stations studied. The major drought sequence was detected to take place over the period extending from 2001 to 2005 relevant to the SPI-72 months, affecting the whole watershed. It was also found that drought occurrence in the region was mainly influenced by medium- and long-term climatic factors. Furthermore, the spatial map distribution of extreme drought events for the long term was developed displaying the variation of drought severity across the study basin.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bank W (2010) Report on the status of disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank, Washington, DC
Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Schöll R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Chang 81:71–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z
Bordi I, Frigio S, Parenti P, Speranza A, Sutera A (2001) The analysis of the standardized precipitation index in the Mediterranean area: large-scale patterns 2001:44. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-3549
Boudad B, Sahbi H, Mansouri I (2018) Analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought based in SPI and SDI index in the Inaouen Basin (Northern Morocco). J Mater Environ Sci 9:219–227. https://doi.org/10.26872/jmes.2018.9.1.25
Chang J, Li Y, Ren Y, Wang Y (2016) Assessment of precipitation and drought variability in the Weihe River Basin, China. Arab J Geosci 9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2638-9
Cheval S, Busuioc A, Dumitrescu A, Birsan MV (2014) Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological drought in Romania using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Clim Res 60:235–248. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01245
Dai A (2011) Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer drought severity index during 1900–2008. J Geophys Res 116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd015541
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global dataset of Palmer drought severity index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-386.1
DGRE (1977-2015) Technical report: rainfall variability reports in Tunisia. Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, Tunisia
Edwards DC, McKee TB (1997) Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales Atmospheric science paper; no 634
El Rafey M (2009) Impact of climate change: vulnerability and adaptation of coastal areas. Report of the Arab. Forum for Environment and Development. In: Tolba MK (ed). AFED, N.W.Saab.Beirut, Lebanon, pp 47–62
Ellouze M, Abida H (2008) Caractérisation de la sècheresse au sud Tunisien. Paper presented at the XIII World Water Congress, Montpellier, France, 1-4 September 2008
Ellouze M, Azri C, Abida H (2009) Spatial variability of monthly and annual rainfall data over Southern Tunisia. Atmos Res 93:832–839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.04.005
Gentilucci M, Barbieri M, Burt P (2018a) Climatic variations in Macerata Province (Central Italy). Water 10:1104. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081104
Gentilucci M, Barbieri M, Burt P, D’Aprile F (2018b) Preliminary data validation and reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in Central Italy. Geosciences 8:202. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060202
Giddings L, Soto M, Rutherford BM, Maarouf A (2005) Standardized precipitation index zones for México. Atmósfera 18:33–56
Gilbert RO (1988) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Biometrics 44:319. https://doi.org/10.2307/2531935
Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm1. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 35:311–322. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x
Hayes M, Svoboda M, Wall N, Widhalm M (2011) The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:485–488. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010bams3103.1
Ionita M, Scholz P, Chelcea S (2016) Assessment of droughts in Romania using the standardized precipitation index. Nat Hazards 81:1483–1498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2141-8
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML O.F. Canziani, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (ed) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 976
Kendall MG (1957) Rank correlation methods. Biometrika 44:298. https://doi.org/10.2307/2333282
Koleva E, Alexandrov V (2008) Drought in the Bulgarian low regions during the 20th century. Theor Appl Climatol 92:113–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0297-1
Livada I, Assimakopoulos VD (2006) Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Greece using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Theor Appl Climatol 89:143–153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0227-z
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Masih I, Maskey S, Mussá FEF, Trambauer P (2014) A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:3635–3649. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, vol 22. American Meteorological Society Boston, MA, pp 179–183
Milanovic M, Gocic M, Trajkovic S (2014) Analysis of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Serbia Facta universitatis - series. Arch Civ Eng 12:253–264. https://doi.org/10.2298/fuace1403253m
Moreira EE, Coelho CA, Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Mexia JT (2008) SPI-based drought category prediction using loglinear models. J Hydrol 354:116–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.002
Mouelhi S, Laatiri L (2014) Drought conditions and management strategies in Tunisia. http://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/UNWDPC_NDMP_Country_Report_Tunisia_2014.pdf. Accessed 12 Feb 2017
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought US Weather Bureau research paper
Palmer WC (1968) Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: the new crop moisture index. Weatherwise 21:156–161. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1968.9932814
Rajasekaran E, Das N, Poulsen C, Behrangi A, Swigart J, Svoboda M, Entekhabi D, Yueh S, Doorn B, Entin J (2018) SMAP soil moisture change as an Indicator of drought conditions. Remote Sens 10:788. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10050788
Rojas O, Vrieling A, Rembold F (2011) Assessing drought probability for agricultural areas in Africa with coarse resolution remote sensing imagery. Remote Sens Environ 115:343–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.09.006
Sandholt I, Rasmussen K, Andersen J (2002) A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status. Remote Sens Environ 79:213–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(01)00274-7
Schilling J, Freier KP, Hertig E, Scheffran J (2012) Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco. Agric Ecosyst Environ 156:12–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.04.021
Shafer BA, Dezman LE (1982) Development of a surface water supply index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. Western Snow Conference, Reno, Nevada
Svoboda M, Hayes M, Wood D (2012) Standardized precipitation index user guide. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva
Touchan R, Anchukaitis KJ, Meko DM, Attalah S, Baisan C, Aloui A (2008) Long term context for recent drought in northwestern Africa. Geophys Res Lett 35. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034264
Van Loon AF (2015) Hydrological drought explained. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Water 2:359–392. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085
Van Rooy M (1965) A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Notes 14:6
Vicente-Serrano SM (2006) Spatial and temporal analysis of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula (1910–2000). Hydrol Sci J 51:83–97. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.1.83
Wang C, Lu W, He X, Wang F, Zhou Y, Guo X, Guo X (2016) The cotton mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 3 functions in drought tolerance by regulating stomatal responses and root growth. Plant Cell Physiol 57:1629–1642. https://doi.org/10.1093/pcp/pcw090
WBGU (2008) World in transition. Climate change as a security risk. The German advisory council on global change. Earthscan, London
Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. J Clim 17:2335–2351. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2335:aspdsi>2.0.co;2
Wilhite DA (2000) In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought: a global assessment, vol 1. Routledge, London, pp 3–18
Zhao W, Yu X, Ma H, Zhu Q, Zhang Y, Qin W, Ai N, Wang Y (2015) Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 1957-2012 in the semi-arid loess plateau, China. PLoS One 10:e0141662. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141662
Zhao S, Cong D, He K, Yang H, Qin Z (2017) Spatial-temporal variation of drought in China from 1982 to 2010 based on a modified temperature vegetation drought index (mTVDI). Sci Rep 7:17473. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17810-3
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is part of the Topical Collection on Water resources and water management for environmental integration in the Euro-Mediterranean region
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jemai, S., Kallel, A. & Abida, H. Drought distribution using the standardized precipitation index: case of Gabes Basin, South Tunisia. Arab J Geosci 11, 737 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4053-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4053-x