Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Thermal comfort and forecast of energy consumption in Northwest Iran

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Assessing the climatic characteristics and identifying the climatic parameters of a specific region can play a major role in human welfare. Thermal comfort conditions are among the most significant factors of climatic variables in the northwestern regions of Iran due to the considerable spatial and temporal variations and are vital for environmental, energy and economic management. It is therefore necessary to advance our knowledge of the climatic conditions in order to provide an appropriate tool for managing climatic extremes. This requires charting of the range of clusters of the thermal comfort conditions in this region. In this study, the general atmosphere circulation model HADCM3 and the A1 scenario, downscaled by the LARS-WG model, were employed to simulate the climatic conditions in Iran during the period 2011–2040. The data obtained were compared with sampled data from six Iranian climatic stations for the 30-year period (1961–1990). In order to tabulate this comparison, six clusters per climatic station were defined based on intrinsic similarity of data. Results show an increase in the annual average temperature of these six stations by 1.69 °C for the predicted years, projected from the base years 1961–1990. This factor has resulted in an increment of the annual average thermal comfort temperature inside buildings by a magnitude of 0.52 °C in future decades. When the thermal requirements of the studied region were evaluated based on the real temperature difference and the degree of thermal comfort, it becomes clear that apart from cluster 1, the energy required to reach thermal comfort inside buildings will increase in the future. As a result of this temperature increase, an increase of the energy required to reach the thermal comfort is expected. This new methodology is an interesting tool and needs to be seriously considered by engineers and architects in designing buildings of the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bazrafshan J, Khalili A, Hoorfar A, Torabi S, Hajjaj N (2009) Assessment and comparison of the function of the LARS model and the ClimGen model in simulating the variables of meteorology in different climatic conditions of Iran. J Res Iran Water Resou 3:44–57 (in Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro D, Fischer E, Luterbacher J, Trigo R, Garcia-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332:220–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bassil K, Cole D (2010) Effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality during heat episodes: a structured review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7:991–1001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babaeian I, Zahra NajafiNik Z (2006) The introduction and evaluation of the LARS-WG model for modeling the meteorological parameters of Khorasan Province in the period 1961–2003. J Nivar 62:49–65, in Persian

    Google Scholar 

  • Babaeian I, Kwon WT (2005) Climate change assessment over Korea using stochastic daily data. Proceeding of the First Iran–Korea Joint Workshop on Climate Modelling. Nov. 2005. Climate Research Institute, Mashad, Iran

  • Bezir NC, Akkurt I, Ozek N (2010) Estimation of horizontal solar radiation in Isparta (Turkey). Energy Source A 32:512–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coutts A, Beringer J, Tapper N (2007) Impact of increasing urban density on local climate: spatial and temporal variations in the surface energy balance in Melbourne. Australia J Appl Meteor Climatol 46:477–493

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cusack L, de Crespigny C, Athanasos P (2011) Heat waves and their impact on people with alcohol، drug and mental health conditions: a discussion paper on clinical practice considerations. J Adv Nurs 67:915–922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christenson M, Manz H, Gyalistras D (2006) Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland. Energ Conver Manage 47:671–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz J, Linares C, Tobias A (2006) A critical comment on heat wave response plans. Eur J Public Health 16. doi:10.1093/eurpub/ckl228

  • D’Ippoliti D, Michelozzi P, Marino C, de’Donato F, Menne B, Katsouyanni K, Kirchmayer U, Analitis A, Medina-Ramon M, Paldy A (2010) The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environ Health 9. doi:10.1186/1476-069X-9-37

  • Dianne L, Ebi L, Forsberg B (2011) Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves. Int J Environ Res Public Health 8:4623–4648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebi K, Teisberg T, Kalkstein L, Robinson L, Weiher R (2004) Heat watch/warning systems save lives: estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1067–1073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, O’Connor M, Kosatsky T (2010a) Health effects of hot weather: from awareness of risk factors to effective health protection. Lancet 375:856–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebi K, Kovats R, Menne B (2005) An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change. Environ Health Perspect 114:1930–1934

    Google Scholar 

  • Frank T (2005) Climate change impacts on building heating and cooling energy demand in Switzerland. Energ Build 37:1175–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghobadian B, Najafi G, Rahimi H, Yusaf T (2009) Future of renewable energies in Iran. Renew Sust Ener Rev 13:689–695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haines A, Kovats R, Campbell-Lendrum D, Corvalan C (2006) Climate change and human health: impacts vulnerability and mitigation. Lancet 367:2101–2109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, Sheridan S, Allen M, Pascal M, Laaidi K, Yagouti A, Bickis U, Tobias A, Bourque D, Armstrong Kosatsky T (2010b) Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days. Am J Public Health 100:1137–1144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) The physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson G, Hanson C, Hardegree S, Ballard E (1996) Stochastic weather simulation: overview and analysis of two commonly used models. J Applied Meteorol 35:1878–1896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats R, Ebi K (2005) Heatwaves and public health in Europe. Eur J Public Health 16:592–599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koppe C, Becker P (2007) Comparison of operational heat health warning systems in Europe, working document of the project “Improving Public Health Responses to Extreme Weather/Heat-Waves-EuroHEAT”. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawless C, Semenov M (2005) Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model. Agricul Forest Mete 135:302–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sajjad Khan M, Coulibaly P, Dibike Y (2006) Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods. J Hydro 319:357–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl G, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305:994–997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthies F, Menne B (2008) Preparedness and response to heat-waves in Europe from evidence to action. Public health response to extreme weather events. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen

    Google Scholar 

  • Majid Zahedi B, Sari Sarraf B, JavidJame IR (2007) The analysis of the temporal-spatial variations of the temperature of the northwest of Iran. J Geogr Develop 4:183–198 (in Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N, Skinner C, Loughnan M, Tapper N (2008) A simple heat alert system for Melbourne. Aust Int J Biometeorol 52:375–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orosa JA (2012) New methodology to define probability of buildings energy consumption. Energy Edcu Sci Tech 28(2):897–908

    Google Scholar 

  • Orosa JA, Oliveira AC (2012) A field study on building inertia and its effects on indoor thermal environment. Renew Energ 37(1):89–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orosa J, Oliveira A (2011) A new thermal comfort approach comparing adaptive and PMV models. Renew Energ 36:951–956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian B, Gameda S, Hayhoe H, De Jong R, Bootsma A (2004) Comparison of LARSWG and AAFC-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse Canadian climates. Climate Res 26:175–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowshan G, Mohammadi H, Nasrabadi T, Hoveidi H, Baghvand A (2007) The role of climate study in analyzing flood forming potential of water basins. Int J Environ Res 3:231–236

    Google Scholar 

  • Roshan G, Ranjbar F, Orosa J (2010) Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions. Int J Enviro Sci Tech 7:571–580

    Google Scholar 

  • Roshan G, Grab S (2012) Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran. Int J Plant Product 2:239–265

    Google Scholar 

  • Roshan G, Oji R, Al-Yahyai S (2013) Impact of climate change on the wheat-growing season over Iran Arab. J Geosci. doi:10.1007/s12517-013-0917-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Roshan G, Rousta I, Ramesh M (2009) Studying the effects of urban sprawl of metropolis on tourism—climate index oscillation: a case study of Tehran city. J Geogr Region Plan 12:310–321

    Google Scholar 

  • Rey G, Fouillet A, Bessemoulin P, Frayssinet P, Dufour A, Jougla E, Hemon D (2009) Heat exposure and socio-economic vulnerability as synergistic factors in heat-wave-related mortality. Eur J Epidemiol 24:495–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shakoor A, Roshan G, Khoshakhlagh F, Hejazizadeh Z (2008) Effects of climate change process on comfort climate in Shiraz station. Iran J Environ Health Sci Eng 5:269–276

    Google Scholar 

  • Semenov M, Barrow E (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climate Change 35:397–414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semenov M, Brooks R, Barrow E, Richardson C (1998) Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diverse climates. Climate Res 10:95–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semenov M, Barrow E (2002) LARS-WG a stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies. User’s manual. Version3.0. http://www.rothamsted.ac.uk/mas-models/download/LARS-WG-Manual.pdf

  • Semenov M (2007) Developing of high-resolution UKCUP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agric Forest Met 144:127–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster P, Holland G, Curry J, Chang H (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Zhang X, Tian Y (2012) Impact of climate change on 24-h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin. East China, Hydro Proc. doi:10.1002/hyp.9210

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Faculty of Human Science, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran

    Gholamreza Roshan & Abdolazim Ghanghermeh

  2. Department of Energy and M.P., E.T.S.NyM, University of A Coruña, Paseo de Ronda 51, 15011, A Coruña, Spain

    José Antonio Orosa

Authors
  1. Gholamreza Roshan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Abdolazim Ghanghermeh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. José Antonio Orosa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gholamreza Roshan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Roshan, G., Ghanghermeh, A. & Orosa, J.A. Thermal comfort and forecast of energy consumption in Northwest Iran. Arab J Geosci 7, 3657–3674 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-013-0973-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-013-0973-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation