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Competitive authoritarianism in Uganda: the not so hidden hand of the military

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Abstract

This paper draws on the notion of “coercive power” as developed by Levitsky and Way (Competitive authoritarianism: hybrid regimes after the cold war, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2010) to argue that the incumbent regime in Uganda, the National Resistance Movement under President Yoweri Museveni, offers a particularly interesting case of competitive authoritarianism. Using empirical data, the paper extends Levitsky and Way’s scope of analysis to include contemporary Uganda, which has vital characteristics of both democracy and authoritarianism. The paper provides a fresh insight into the hitherto lesser-analyzed “trinitarian” interplay whereby President Museveni, the military and the ruling party essentially function as one and the same. The paper singles out the incumbent regime’s coercive capacity as the most instrumental factor that explains its continued stability. Subsequently, the paper elucidates the symbiotic coercive strategies that are applied to systematically resist opposition challenges.

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Notes

  1. In February 2009 Uganda also became a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (see Africa Yearbook 2009, p. 415).

  2. See also http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/omar-d-kalinge-nnyago. Accessed 23.06.2012.

  3. Interview, academic X2, Kampala, 15 April 2009.

  4. One should keep in mind that Levitsky and Way (2010, p. 4) examine the trajectories of 35 regimes that were or became competitively authoritarian between 1990 and 1995. In Africa, the countries analyized include Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (Levitsky and Way 2010, Chap. 6).

  5. The data used in this paper is part of the PhD project “Militarization in post−1986 Uganda: Politics, Military and Society Interpenetration” that was concluded at Bayreuth University in April 2013. Four qualitative techniques of data collection were used: in-depth interviews (102 semi-structured interviews with military officers, intelligence officers, politicians, journalists, academics and ordinary people were conducted), focus group discussions, occasional observation and document review (especially newspaper reports). Given the sensitivity of the subject, the majority of interviewees requested anonymity.

  6. Levitsky and Way define Western leverage as the regime’s susceptibility to Western pressure to democratize, and linkage to the West as the density of ties (economic, political, diplomatic, and social) and cross-border flows (of capital, goods and service and information) among particular countries and the United States, Western Europe and Western-dominated multilateral institutions (Levitsky and Way 2010, pp. 40–46). Levitsky and Way (2010, p. 53) maintain that where leverage and linkage are both high, authoritarianism is least likely to survive because external pressure to democratize is consistent and intense. Uganda is characterized by both low leverage and low linkage.

  7. In a de facto sense, it is in Uganda almost impossible to functionally and ideologically separate the military from other security forces, including the police and intelligence agencies. The organisations exchange personnel amongst their structures and share a historical origin rooted in the 1981–1985 guerrilla war.

  8. See the official results at http://www.ec.or.ug/Elec_results/2011_Pres_dis.pdf. Accessed 07.07.14.

  9. For details see http://www.ec.or.ug/docs/Elected%20MPs%202011%20General%20Elections.pdf. Accessed 04.12.13.

  10. Some of the attacks on the media include the 1 week closing of the Daily Monitor and the Redpepper in May 2013 for publishing renegade General David Sejusa’s writings that alleged President Museveni had planned to systematically assassinate high ranking officers in the army who opposed Museveni’s plan to anoint his son as his automatic successor.

  11. See http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/32160–amin-museveni-are-the-same-besigye. Accessed 19.02.15.

  12. Other rebel groups include the Uganda People’s Democratic Army (UPDA), the Holy Spirit Movement (HSM), the Uganda People’s Army (UPA), the West Nile Bank Front (WNBF), Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), and the Uganda National Rescue Front (UNRF). The LRA has committed countless human rights abuses such as abduction of innocent children, turning underage girls into sex slaves, raping, burning people alive, pillaging, and performing body mutilation and maiming (see Van Acker 2003, pp. 34–37; Worden 2008, pp. 1–8).

  13. Interview, intelligence officer X2, Kampala, 22 January 2011 and interview, military officer X2, Kampala, 16 April 2009; Both indicated that some of the money budgeted for the war in northern Uganda would be channeled to carry out political work for the NRM elsewhere in the country. Between 1988 and 2007, for example, the defense budget grew from US$ 69.2 million to US$ 237 million (see Tripp 2010, p. 140; Kagoro 2012, p. 13).

  14. Also see the Republic of Uganda, Ministry of Local Government, http://www.molg.go.ug/index.php/local-governments. Accessed 15.08.12.

  15. For details see http://www.molg.go.ug/index.php/local-governments. Accessed 02.07.14.

  16. The DG ISO is in charge of the country’s internal security and is a direct appointee of the president.

  17. Interview, intelligence officer X3, Wakiso, 28 Febraury 2011.

  18. For details see http://ec.or.ug/docs/registration%20statistics2011.pdf. Accessed 02.07.14.

  19. There are a total of 7411 parishes in the country, for details see http://ec.or.ug/pollingstatn.php. Accessed 02.07.14.

  20. However, LC1 elections have not been held since 2001 on account of a lawsuit brought by the leading opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). The lawsuit contests the FDC’s legitimacy in the framework of multiparty politics that was re-introduced in 2005. This has resulted in LC1 chairpersons governing their villages from 2001 to the present without elections (see Gibb 2012, p. 458). There are a total of 57,789 LC1 units (villages) in Uganda.

  21. These include: 3K Brigade, Amuka Boys, Arrow Boys, Black Brigade, Black Mamba, Blue Cobra, Elephant Brigade, Kibooko Squad and Red Brigade.

  22. Fearing reprisal, Besigye and his co-accused opted to return to prison despite having been granted bail by the court.

  23. After the 2006 elections, Besigye made a similar petition (Tangri and Mwenda 2010, p. 35).

  24. Resistence Councils (RCs) were renamed Local Councils (LCs) following the promulgation of the 1995 Uganda constitution.

  25. For example, when army MP Brigader Henry Tumukunde appeared on two Kampala-based radio stations making critical remarks about the army and the state of governance in the country, he was put under military detention for over a year and faced court martial hearings in military court for spreading harmful propaganda and breaching army codes. Another notable case was Colonel Fred Bogere, who as an army MP in the 7th Parliament (2001–2006) refused to support raising the presidential term limit (to allow President Museveni to continuously run for presidency). Colonel Bogere has been largely pushed out of the public sphere and has never been deployed or given any assignment since then.

  26. General Aronda made these comments in the course of addressing newly trained officers at Mubende barracks (central Uganda).

  27. See also http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Parliament-summons-Gen–Aronda–Kiyonga-over-coup-talk/-/688334/1677506/-/na2yh1z/-/index.html. Accessed 19.02.2015.

  28. Bidandi was once a strong ally of President Museveni and served in several cabinet positions before their disagreement in 2005 on the issue of raising the presidential term limits.

  29. See also The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), Uganda Country Report, January 2004.

  30. Buganda (in central Uganda) is a traditional kingdom headed by the Kabaka (king).

  31. The demonstrations were organized in protest against rising food prices, fuel prices and alarming levels of inflation in Uganda.

  32. See Article 19, Uganda: Public Order Management Act, October 2013.

  33. Interview, military officer X2, Kampala, 16 April 2009.

  34. Ironically, Uganda is a country of more than 60 ethnic groups. For details see Uganda bureau of statistics official figures at http://www.ubos.org/onlinefiles/uploads/ubos/census_tabulations/centableB10.pdf. Accessed 12.01.12.

  35. Interview, investigative journalist X2, Kampala, 12 March 2011; interview, military officer X3, western Uganda, 13 February 2011; interview, military officer X4, Kampala, 18 January 2012.

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  1. Institute for Intercultural and International Studies, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Jude Kagoro

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Kagoro, J. Competitive authoritarianism in Uganda: the not so hidden hand of the military. Z Vgl Polit Wiss 10 (Suppl 1), 155–172 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-015-0261-x

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