Abstract
Glaciers are considerably important machinery which is necessary to keep the equilibrium of the earth. The rapid boost in the mean temperatures of the globe and abnormal precipitations are the direct warnings for glaciers to survive. Mostly the perennial rivers of the world emerge from glaciers. In an agricultural country like Pakistan the existence of the glaciers is of prime importance. The major river of the country originates from the Himalayan and Karakorum glaciated mountains. River Indus is a vital example. Moreover the mega and world renowned Tarbela dam also exists on the same river. This can be surly concluded that the future of a country is directly associated with the flows available in the rivers and hence the existence of glaciers. The rapid disintegration of the glaciers has been reported throughout the world which is obviously not a healthy sign. Therefore, a careful study is required to estimate the variations of the flows with the receding glaciers. As a case study, Chitral watershed in Pakistan has been selected. The UBC watershed model has been used to forecast the flows. The model was calibrated for the daily flows observed in 2009 at Chitral stream gauging station. The percentage contributions to the total annual flow were simulated as 23%, 31%, 1% and 45% due to glacier melt, snow melt, rain-fall runoff and groundwater, respectively for year 2009. Model results were validated for the flows of year 2006 and 2007. The further analysis was performed by assuming reduction in glaciated areas and considering the climatological conditions same as observed in year 2009. The model results show that a significant decrease in the flows of Chitral River appears due to the assumed reduction of glaciated extent.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Archer, D. R. (2002). “Flood risk evaluation in the Karakoram Himalaya: implications of non-homogeneity and non-stationary.” Proc. Eighth National Hydrology Symposium, British Hydrological Society, pp. 7–12.
Akhtar, M, Ahmad,. N, and Booij. M. J. (2008). “The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios.” J. Hydrol., Vol. 355, pp. 148–163.
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J. (2004). “Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications.” Hydrology and Earth System Science, Vol. 8, pp. 47–61
Bhutiyani, M. R., Kale, V. S., and Pawar, N. J. (2007). “Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006.” Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 30, pp. 535–548.
Böhm, R., Auer, I., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T., and Schöner, W. (2001). “Regional temperature variability in the European Alps: 1760–1998 from homogenized instrumental time series.” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 21, No. 14, pp. 1779–1801.
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., Christy, J. R., Clarke, R. A., Gruza, G. V., Jouzel, J., Mann, M. E., Oerlemans, J., Salinger, M. J., and Wang, S.-W. (2001). “Observed climate variability and change.” Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, pp. 99–82.
Fowler, H. J. and Archer, D. R. (2006). “Conflicting signals of climatic change in the upper Indus Basin.” Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, pp. 4276–4293
Hewitt, K. (1982). “Natural dams and outburst floods in the Karakoram Himalaya.” IAHS Publication No., Vol. 138, pp. 259–269.
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A. (eds.), Climate Change (2001). The scientific basis, Contributionof Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, p. 881.
IPCC (2001). Climate change, The IPCC Third Assessment Report, Vol. I, The Scientific Basis, II-Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, IIIMitigation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, NY.
IPCC: Climate Change (2007). The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
Jones, P. D. and Moberg, A. (2003). “Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001.” J. Climate, Vol. 16, pp. 206–223.
Paul, F., Kääb, A., Maisch, M., Kellenberger, T. W., and Haeberli, W., (2004). “Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data.” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, L21402.
Pearce, F. (2002) Meltdown, New Scientist, Vol. 2367, pp. 45–48.
Quick, M. C. and Pipes, A. (1976). “A combined snowmelt and rainfallrunoff model.” Can. J. Civil Engg., Vol. 3, pp. 449–460.
Quick, M. C. and Pipes, A. (1977). U.B.C. Watershed model, Hydrological Sciences-Bulletin-des Sciences Hydrologiques, XXII, 13.
Quick, M. C., Pipes, A., Nixon, D., Yu, E., Loukas, A., Millar, R., Assaf, H., and Start, B. (1995). U.B.C. Watershed model manual, Version 4.0. Mountain Hydrology Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
Shakir, A. S., ur-Rehman, H., and Ehsan, S. (2010). “Climate change impact on river flows in chitral watershed.” Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 7, pp. 12–22.
WGMS (2002). World glacier monitoring service, Glacier Mass Balance Data 2000/01, www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/.
Zängl, W. and Hamberger, S. (2004). Gletscher im Treibhaus, Eine fotografische Zeitreise in die alpine Eiswelt, Tecklenborg Verlag, Steinfurth.
Zemp, M., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W. (2007). “Distributed modelling of the regional climatic equilibrium line altitude of glaciers in the European Alps.” Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 56, pp. 83–100.
Zhai, P., Sun, A., Ren, F., Xiaonin, L., Gao, B., and Zhang, Q. (1999). “Changes in climate extreme in China.” Climate Change, Vol. 42, pp. 203–218.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Naeem, U.A., Hashmi, H.N., Habib-ur-Rehman et al. Flow trends in river Chitral due to different scenarios of glaciated extent. KSCE J Civ Eng 17, 244–251 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-1978-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-1978-1