Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

On the success rates of maritime piracy attacks

  • Published:
Journal of Transportation Security Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Today, modern pirates operate both in ports and on the open sea and use state-of-the-art equipment. Their crimes range from simple robbery to murder and hijacking of entire ships for ransom demand. It is the purpose of this paper to investigate the modern piracy trends and the effect of preventive actions taken by the crew of the attacked vessels. By analysing the available statistical material from the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) monthly piracy reports during the period 2000–2009, it is shown that the attack rates on specific vessel segments and the recorded incidents for each geographical area develop their own trends. Incidents off and around the African continent have resulted to fewer deaths as compared to those in South China Sea and Malacca strait indicating that this area is dominated by more violent attacks against seafarers. However, the African attacks have bigger threatening potential in terms of the weapons used, whereas the inclusion of light weaponry in Asian attacks characterises them ancestors of historical piracy. Over the 10-year investigation period, a shift is observed from acts of robbery to acts of hostage taking and hijacking particularly around and off the East African coast. Estimates of the probability of an attack are provided through logistic regression modelling indicating that the success rate decreases with vessel size. It is also shown that the attacks are emphasised on specific vessel types for example chemical and oil tankers. The importance of a heightened vigilant crew in reducing the probability of a successful attack is pointed out by the analysis’ results. It is found that pirates are aiming at successful attacks regardless of their tactics and the success rate becomes higher as the pirates’ capability is improved. Additionally, the success probability of an attack is decreased as the act’s difficulty is increased, i.e. less success for hijacking rather than robbery.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abeyratne R (2009) The responsibility of Somalia for the acts of the Somali pirates. J Transp Secur 2:63–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Agresti A (2002) Categorical data analysis, 2nd edn. John Wiley & Sons Inc. Series in Probability and Statistics, Hoboken

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bangert Struwe L (2009) For a greater horn of Africa sea patrol—a strategic analysis of the Somali pirate challenge. Danish Institute for Military Studies, Copenhagen

    Google Scholar 

  • Baniela SI (2010) Piracy at sea: Somalia an area of great concern. J Navig 63:191–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beckman RC (2002) Combating piracy and armed robbery against ships in Southeast Asia: the way forward. Ocean Dev Int Law 33:317–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beckman RC (2009) The 1988 SUA Convention and 2005 SUA Protocol: tools to combat piracy, armed robbery, and maritime terrorism. In: Herbert-Burns R, Bateman S, Lehr P (eds) Lloyd’s MIU handbook of maritime security. CRC, Boca Raton, pp 187–200

    Google Scholar 

  • Bendall HB (2010) Cost of piracy: a comparative voyage approach. Marit Econ Logist 12:178–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bozkurt MU (2010) Comparison of maritime piracy in Southeast Asia with East Africa and applicability of the counter-piracy measurers taken in Asia to East Africa. Presented at the First Global Conference on Innovation in Marine Technology and the Future of Maritime Transportation, 24–26 November, Istanbul, Turkey.

  • Bruyneel M (2003) Current reports on piracy by the IMO and the IMB—a comparison. Presented at the People and the Sea II Conference, Centre for Maritime Research (MARE) Conference, 4–6 September, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

  • Caplan JM, Kennedy LW, Miller J (2011) Risk terrain modeling: brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting. Justice Q 28:360–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chalk P (2008) International security: terrorism, piracy, and challenges for the United States. RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy, Santa Monica

    Google Scholar 

  • Christiansen AF, Mærli MB (2011) Risk based security assessment methodology. DNV research and innovation position paper—X, Høvik, Norway (Under preparation).

  • Collet D (2003) Modelling binary data, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins R, Hassan D (2009) Applications and shortcomings of the law of the sea in combating piracy: a South East Asian perspective. J Marit Law Commer 40:89–113

    Google Scholar 

  • Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd.-Drewry (2009) Ship operating costs 2009–2010: annual review and forecast. London, UK

  • Dagne T (2009) Somalia: current conditions and prospects for a lasting peace. congressional research service report no: RL33911, Washington, DC

  • Davis WM (2009) Analysis of the strategy to combat maritime piracy. Master Thesis, US Army Command and General Staff College

  • Dillon D (2005) Maritime piracy: defining the problem. SAIS Rev 25:155–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Equasis (2010) Ship search. Lisbon. Available via (Accessed 9 July 2010) http://www.equasis.org/EquasisWeb/public/HomePage

  • Greene WH (2008) Econometric analysis, 6th edn. Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen SJ (2009) Piracy in the greater Gulf of Aden—myths, misconceptions and remedies. Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research, Report No: NIBR 2009:29, Oslo

  • Harrell Jr FE (2001) Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. Springer Series in Statistics, Springer-Verlag New York Inc., USA

  • Hastings JV (2009) Geographies of state failure and sophistication in maritime piracy hijackings. Polit Geogr 28:213–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herbert-Burns R (2007) Compound piracy at sea in the early twenty-first century: a tactical to operational-level perspective on contemporary, multiphase piratical methodology. In: Lehr P (ed) Violence at sea—piracy in the age of global terrorism. Routledge, New York, pp 95–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Ho J (2009) Combating piracy and armed robbery in Asia: the ReCAAP Information Sharing Centre (ISC). Mar Policy 33:432–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong N, Ng AKY (2010) The international legal instruments in addressing piracy and maritime terrorism: a critical review. Res Transp Econ 27:51–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IMO (2003) International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code and SOLAS Amendments adopted on 12 December 2002. Electronic edition, Sales number: E116E, London

  • IMO (2009) Piracy and armed robbery against ships—guidance to shipowners and ship operators, shipmasters and crews on preventing and suppressing acts of piracy and armed robbery against ships. London: MSC.1/Circ.1334

  • IMO (2010a) Code of practice for the investigation of crimes of piracy and armed robbery against ships. London: A 26/Res.1025

  • IMO (2010b) MSC.4 Reports on piracy and armed robbery against ships. Available via (Accessed 7 July 2010) http://www.imo.org/Facilitation/mainframe.asp?topic_id=1164

  • Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics-ISL (2009) Shipping statistics yearbook 2009. Bremen, Germany

  • International Chamber of Shipping-ICS et al (2010) BMP 3—best management practice version 3: piracy off the coast of Somalia and Arabian Sea area, suggested planning and operational practices for ship operators, and masters of ships transiting the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Witherby Seamanship International Ltd., Edinburgh

    Google Scholar 

  • Jesus HEJL (2003) Protection of foreign ships against piracy and terrorism at sea: legal aspects. Int J Mar Coast Law 18:363–400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaye S (2009) Interdiction and boarding of vessels at sea: new developments and old problems. In: Herbert-Burns R, Bateman S, Lehr P (eds) Lloyd’s MIU handbook of maritime security. CRC, Boca Raton, pp 201–213

    Google Scholar 

  • King RO (2009) Ocean piracy and its impact on insurance. Congressional Research Service Report No: R40081, Washington, DC

  • Kraska J, Wilson B (2009) Combating pirates of the Gulf of Aden: the Djibouti Code and the Somali coast guard. Ocean Coast Manage 52:516–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mak JN (2007) Pirates, renegades, and fishermen: the politics of “sustainable” piracy in the Strait of Malacca. In: Lehr P (ed) Violence at sea—piracy in the age of global terrorism. Routledge, New York, pp 199–223

    Google Scholar 

  • Mandryk W (2010) Fight against piracy is critical to world trade. Lloyd’s List, Published: 16 December 2010, London. Available via (Accessed 25 January 2011) http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/regulation/article352560.ece

  • Maritime Security Centre Horn of Africa-MSCHOA (2009) Best Management Practices to Deter Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and off the Coast of Somalia. Version 2, London

  • Maritime Security Centre Horn of Africa-MSCHOA (2010) EU NAVFOR Somalia. Available via (Accessed 9 July 2010) http://www.mschoa.org/Pages/default.aspx

  • Matison KS (2009) The big business of maritime piracy and the modern corsair: dead men tell no tales. J Transp Law Logist Policy 76:371–394

    Google Scholar 

  • Matthews S (2010) First quarter piracy attacks fall. Lloyd’s List, Published: 21 April 2010, London. Available via (Accessed 22 July 2010) http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/ship-operations/article7300.ece

  • McNicholas M (2008) Maritime security—an introduction. Butterworth-Heinemann Elsevier Inc., Burlington

    Google Scholar 

  • Mejia Jr MQ, Cariou P, Wolf FC (2010) Piracy in shipping. Laboratoire d’Economie et de Management Nantes-Antlantique (LEMNA) Working Paper 2010/14 EA 4272, Université de Nantes, Nantes, France

  • Mejia MQ Jr, Cariou P, Wolf FC (2008) Ship piracy: ship type and flag. In: Talley WK (ed) Maritime safety, security and piracy. Informa, London, pp 103–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Mejia MQ Jr, Cariou P, Wolf FC (2009) Is maritime piracy random? Appl Econ Lett 16:891–895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mellow J, Schlager MD, Caplan JM (2008) Using GIS to evaluate post-release prisoner services in Newark, New Jersey. J Crim Justice 36:416–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo J (2002) Options to combat maritime piracy in Southeast Asia. Ocean Dev Int Law 33:343–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Møller B (2009) Piracy, maritime terrorism and naval strategy. Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Report No: 2009:02, Copenhagen

  • Mukundan P (2009) Recent trends on piracy and armed robbery against ships. Presented at the 32nd Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Transportation Working Group Meeting, 27–30 July, Singapore

  • Murphy M (2007) Piracy and UNCLOS: does international law help regional states combat piracy? In: Lehr P (ed) Violence at sea—piracy in the age of global terrorism. Routledge, New York, pp 155–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Oil Companies International Marine Forum-OCIMF (2009) Piracy—the East Africa/Somalia situation: practical measures to avoid, deter or delay piracy attacks. Witherby Seamanship International Ltd., Edinburgh

    Google Scholar 

  • Ong-Webb GG (2007) Piracy in maritime Asia: current trends. In: Lehr P (ed) Violence at sea—piracy in the age of global terrorism. Routledge, New York, pp 37–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Osler D (2010a) Global pirate attacks fall 20%. Lloyd’s List, Published: 15 July 2010, London. Available via (Accessed 22 July 2010) http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/ship-operations/article173676.ece

  • Osler D (2010b) Record ransom paid to free hijacked tankers. Lloyd’s List, Published: 8 November 2010, London. Available via (Accessed 25 November 2010) http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/ship-operations/article349272.ece

  • Pegg R (2009) Maritime forces and security of merchant shipping in the Mediterranean Sea and Northern Indian Ocean. In: Herbert-Burns R, Bateman S, Lehr P (eds) Lloyd’s MIU handbook of maritime security. CRC, Boca Raton, pp 29–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Percy S, Shortland A (2009) The pirates of Somalia: coastguards of anarchy. Centre for Economic Development & Institutions (CEDI) Working Paper No. 09–09, Brunel University, London, UK

  • Percy S, Shortland A (2010) The business of piracy in Somalia. Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Discussion Paper 1033, Berlin, Germany

  • Piazza JA (2008) Incubators of terror: do failed and failing states promote transnational terrorism? Int Stud Q 52:469–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ploch L, Blanchard CM, O’Rourke R, Mason RC, King RO (2009) Piracy off the Horn of Africa. Congressional Research Service Report No: R40528, Washington, DC

  • Rahman C (2007) The international politics of combating piracy in Southeast Asia. In: Lehr P (ed) Violence at sea—piracy in the age of global terrorism. Routledge, New York, pp 183–198

    Google Scholar 

  • Raymond CZ (2009) Piracy and armed robbery in the Malacca Strait—a problem solved? Naval War Coll Rev 62:31–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Roach JA (2004) Initiatives to enhance maritime security at sea. Mar Policy 28:41–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg D (2009) The political economy of piracy in the South China Sea. Naval War Coll Rev 62:43–58

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg D, Chung C (2008) Maritime security in the South China Sea: coordinating coastal and user state priorities. Ocean Dev Int Law 39:51–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ryan TP (1997) Modern regression methods. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffler A (2010) Piracy—threat or nuisance. Research Division—NATO Defence College, Research Paper No.56, Rome, Italy

  • Sörenson K (2008) State Failure on the high seas—reviewing the Somali piracy, FOI Somalia Papers: Report 3. Swedish Defense Research Agency Report No: FOI-R—2610—SE, Stockholm

  • Sullivan AK (2010) Piracy in the Horn of Africa and its effects on the global supply chain. J Transp Secur 3:231–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talley WK, Rule EM (2008) Piracy in shipping. In: Talley WK (ed) Maritime safety, security and piracy. Informa, London, pp 89–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Teo N (2009) Measures for combating piracy and armed robbery against ships in Asia. Presented at the 32nd Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Transportation Working Group Meeting, 27–30 July, Singapore

  • United Nations-UN (1982) United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 10 December 1982, opened for signature in Montego Bay, Jamaica

  • Visual Numerics (2006) IMSL™ Fortran Numerical Library Version 6.0. Houston, TX, USA

  • Weir GE (2009) Fish, family, and profit—piracy and the Horn of Africa. Naval War Coll Rev 62:15–30

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The work reported in this paper has been carried out under the SECTRONIC project, 7th FP, CP-GA No. 218245, with partial funding from the European Commission as well as the DNV R&I strategic research programmes. The authors would like to thank Anna Ivinska, Ingar Bergh and Tore Longva (DNV) for the data support, Øyvind Endresen, Evangelos Boutsianis and Morten Bremer Mærli (DNV) for their valuable comments. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent the views of the SECTRONIC partnership or Det Norske Veritas A/S.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Det Norske Veritas AS, Veritasveien 1, NO-1322, Høvik, Norway

    George Ad. Psarros, Alexander F. Christiansen, Rolf Skjong & Gjermund Gravir

Authors
  1. George Ad. Psarros
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Alexander F. Christiansen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rolf Skjong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Gjermund Gravir
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to George Ad. Psarros.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 3 Estimated parameters of the logistic model for bulk carrier attacks (filtered reports).
Full size table
Table 4 Estimated parameters of the logistic model for chemical tanker attacks (filtered reports).
Full size table
Table 5 Estimated parameters of the logistic model for containership attacks (filtered reports).
Full size table
Table 6 Estimated parameters of the logistic model for general cargo ship attacks (filtered reports).
Full size table
Table 7 Estimated parameters of the logistic model for oil tanker attacks (filtered reports).
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Psarros, G.A., Christiansen, A.F., Skjong, R. et al. On the success rates of maritime piracy attacks. J Transp Secur 4, 309–335 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-011-0073-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-011-0073-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation