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Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran

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Abstract

Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran’s population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31% (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22% (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8% (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times higher than the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01%. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic supports for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.

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Notes

  1. The major reason for the population decrease is the disappearance of the “momentum effect” in 2050; a term to be discussed in greater detail later.

  2. See section 2.1 below for a discussion and references on Iran family planning policies.

  3. See section 3.3 below (pp. 11–13) for further details.

  4. For an excellent review of the historical development of old-age care pensions see Troyansky (2016) and for a historical review of pension and life insurance in the USA see Weaver (1987).

  5. See, e.g., World Bank (1994).

  6. For further details see Time Use Study of Iran, 2014 and 2015.

  7. The Iranian government has tried to close the cash transfer scheme to those on higher income like medical doctors, lawyers, top management and other highly paid professionals. For further details on the Iranian cash transfer system see Messkoub (2019).

  8. De-commodification has to be put in the context of the existing subsidies such as fuel and energy which may be of greater benefit to high-income groups. The reform of such subsidy structure has to be combined with a de-commodification/subsidy structure that would benefit the low and middle-income groups.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology & Gerontology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA

    Nader Mehri

  2. International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University (ISS), Hague, Netherlands

    Mahmood Messkoub

  3. Scripps Gerontology Center and Department of Sociology & Gerontology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA

    Suzanne Kunkel

Authors
  1. Nader Mehri
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  2. Mahmood Messkoub
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  3. Suzanne Kunkel
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Correspondence to Nader Mehri.

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Conflict of Interest

Nader Mehri declares that he has no conflict of interest. Dr. Mahmood Messkoub declares that he has no conflict of interest. Dr. Suzanne Kunkel declares that she has no conflict of interest.

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Not applicable. This study uses secondary data that are aggregated by age groups. The data is publicly available.

Research Involving Human Participants and/or Animals

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

This study uses secondary data that are aggregated by age groups. The data is publicly available.

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Mehri, N., Messkoub, M. & Kunkel, S. Trends, Determinants and the Implications of Population Aging in Iran. Ageing Int 45, 327–343 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12126-020-09364-z

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