Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Criminal Specialization Revisited: A Simultaneous Quantile Regression Approach

  • Published:
American Journal of Criminal Justice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Whether criminals are specialized or versatile in their offending is a long-standing research area that has been recently revitalized by a paradigm that recognizes that both specialization and versatility characterize offending careers. Based on data from an enriched sample of 500 adult habitual criminals, the current study introduces a measure of relative specialization—the offense specialization coefficient—and a novel analytical technique called simultaneous quantile regression to further the study of specialization. Although offenders committed a mix of offenses, there was considerable and at times pronounced evidence of specialization. Age, sex, and arrest onset had differential predictive validity of specialization for eight crimes at the 75th and 95th quantiles. Implications and suggestions for future research are offered.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. There might be important cross-cultural differences between juvenile sex offenders and other serious nonsex juvenile offenders. For instance, a similar study using data from juvenile offenders in The Netherlands found multiple differences between juvenile sex offenders and nonsex offenders in terms of problem behaviors, personality traits, and demographic characteristics (van Wijk et al. 2005b). Lussier et al. (2005a) also found evidence of specialization among convicted child molesters using data from offenders in Canada.

  2. The substantive basis that offenders specialize in violence has been questioned. Britt (1994) indicated that only 20 violent specialists existed in the Danish cohort of nearly 29,000 males (Brennan et al. 1989). Similarly, Piquero (2000) found no evidence of violence specialization based on data from the Philadelphia Collaborative Perinatal Project (also see, Piquero and Buka 2002; Piquero et al. 2007).

  3. Although it is outside the purview of mainstream criminological research on specialization, there is ample evidence of specialization or compulsive, repetitive antisocial behavior in psychiatry (American Psychiatric Association 2000). These include what is effectively clinical specialization in arson (pyromania), assault (intermittent explosive disorder), larceny (kleptomania), and even extraordinarily specific forms of crime, such as assaultive eye injury and enucleation (Bukhanovsky et al. 1999).

  4. The use of both official and self-reported data is important because prior research found that specialization is evident from self-reports but not official records based on analyses of data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (Lynam et al. 2004).

  5. One reason for such divergent findings on specialization is that diverse methods and measures have been used. As noted by Farrington (1986, p. 225), there is no standard measure of specialization. Prior studies have used a host of measures (e.g., the diversity index, forward specialization coefficient, and transition matrices) and analytical approaches (e.g., multinomial logit regression, marginal logit modeling, Tobit regression with Cragg specification, probit regression, truncated regression, and log linear models) (Armstrong and Britt 2004; Britt 1996; Deane et al. 2005; Paternoster et al. 1998; Sullivan et al. 2006) yet no definitive measure or analytical technique has emerged (Sullivan et al. 2009).

  6. It could be argued that the OSC is biased by the total number of offenses and since the current study utilized offenders with a minimum of 30 arrests, there was greater opportunity to specialize. We view the large arrest criterion as a strength compared to offenders with fewer arrests. For instance, claiming theft-specialization for an offender with five career arrests (two of which are for theft) is less compelling than evidence of specialization among an offender with 30 arrests. Also, the eight crimes of interest were selected for two reasons, one substantive and one statistical. First, they represent a cross-section of violent, property, white-collar, traffic, and public-order offenses which maximizes experimental variance. Second, there was inadequate statistical power (e.g., convergence was not achieved) to execute simultaneous quantile regression models for other offenses, such as murder, rape, arson, kidnapping, receiving stolen property, sex offenses, and embezzlement.

  7. Although commonly used in econometric research, quantile regression models are beginning to be used in criminology. Recently, Britt (2009) used quantile regression models to demonstrate that case- and offender-specific variables have differential predictive validity across sentencing quantiles based on sentencing data from Pennsylvania.

References

  • American Psychiatric Association (2000) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, fourth edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR). Author, Washington

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong TA (2008a) Exploring the impact of changes in group composition on trends in specialization. Crime Delinq 54:366–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong TA (2008b) Are trends in specialization across arrests explained by changes in specialization occurring with age? Justice Q 25:201–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong TA, Britt CL (2004) The effect of offender characteristics on offender specialization and escalation. Justice Q 21:843–876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumstein A, Cohen J (1979) Estimation of individual crime rates from arrest records. J Crim Law Criminol 70:561–585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumstein A, Cohen J, Farrington DP (1988a) Longitudinal and criminal career research: further clarifications. Criminology 26:57–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumstein A, Cohen J, Das S, Moitra SD (1988b) Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers. J Quant Criminol 4:303–343

    Google Scholar 

  • Bouffard LA, Wright KA, Muftic LR, Bouffard JA (2008) Gender differences in specialization in intimate partner violence: comparing the gender symmetry and violent resistance perspectives. Justice Q 25:570–594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brame R, Fagan J, Piquero AR, Schubert CA, Steinberg L (2004) Criminal careers of serious delinquents in two cities. Youth Violence Juv Justice 2:256–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brennan P, Mednick S, John R (1989) Specialization in violence: evidence of a criminal subgroup. Criminology 27:437–453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briken P, Habermann N, Kafka MP, Berner W, Hill A (2006) The paraphilia- related disorders: an investigation of the relevance of the concept in sexual murderers. J Forensic Sci 51:683–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Britt CL (1994) Versatility. In: Hirschi T, Gottfredson MR (eds) The generality of deviance. Transaction, New Brunswick, pp 173–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Britt CL (1996) The measurement of specialization and escalation in the criminal career: an alternative modeling strategy. J Quant Criminol 12:193–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Britt CL (2009) Modeling the distribution of sentence length decisions under a guidelines system: an application of quantile regression models. J Quant Criminol 25:341–370

    Google Scholar 

  • Bukhanovsky AO, Hempel A, Ahmed W, Meloy JR, Brantley AC, Cuneo D, Gleyzer R, Felthous AR (1999) Assaultive eye injury and enucleation. J Am Acad Psychiatry Law 27:590–602

    Google Scholar 

  • Bureau of Justice Statistics (2008) Survey of state criminal history information systems, 2006. U. S. Depatment of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Bursik RJ (1980) The dynamics of specialization in juvenile offenses. Soc Forces 58:851–864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaiken J, Chaiken MR (1982) Varieties of criminal behavior. RAND, Santa Monica

    Google Scholar 

  • Clinard M, Quinney R (1973) Criminal behavior systems. Holt, Rinehart, & Winston, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook RD, Weisberg S (1982) Residuals and influence in regression. Chapman and Hall, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Copes H, Cherbonneau M (2006) The key to auto theft: emerging methods of auto theft from offenders’ perspective. Br J Criminol 46:917–934

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Craig LA, Browne KD, Stringer I, Beech A (2005) Sexual recidivism: a review of static, dynamic and actuarial predictors. J Sex Aggress 11:65–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daversa MT, Knight RA (2007) A structural examination of the predictors of sexual coercion against children in adolescent sexual offenders. Crim Justice Behav 34:1313–1333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deane G, Armstrong DP, Felson RB (2005) An examination of offense specialization using marginal logit models. Criminology 43:955–988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2001) Extreme career criminals. Am J Crim Justice 25:239–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2002) Not just a boy’s club: an empirical assessment of female career criminals. Women Crim Justice 13:27–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2003a) Self-control pathology: the elephant in the living room. In: Britt CL, Gottfredson MR (eds) Control theories of crime and delinquency, advances in criminological theory, vol 12. Transaction, New Brunswick, pp 21–38

    Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2003b) The imprisoned non-violent drug offender: specialized martyr or versatile career criminal? Am J Crim Justice 27:167–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2005) Career criminals in society. Sage, Thousand Oaks

    Google Scholar 

  • DeLisi M (2006) Zeroing in on early arrest onset: results from a population of extreme career criminals. J Crim Justice 34:17–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunford FW, Elliott DS (1984) Identifying career offenders using self-reported data. J Res Crime Delinq 21:57–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elliott DS, Huizinga D, Morse B (1986) Self-reported violent offending: a descriptive analysis of juvenile violent offenders and their offending careers. J Interpers Violence 1:472–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farabee D, Joshi V, Anglin MD (2001) Addiction careers and criminal specialization. Crime Delinq 47:196–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrington DP (1986) Age and crime. Crime Justice Annu Rev Res 7:189–250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrington DP, Jolliffe D, Hawkins JD, Catalano RF, Hill KG, Kosterman R (2003) Comparing delinquency careers in court records and self-reports. Criminology 41:933–958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geerken MR (1994) Rap sheets in criminological research: considerations and caveats. J Quant Criminol 10:3–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibbons DC (1975) Offender typologies: two decades later. Br J Criminol 15:140–156

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibbons DC, Garrity DL (1962) Definitions and analysis of certain criminal types. J Crim Law Criminol Police Sci 52:27–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gottfredson MR, Hirschi T (1990) A general theory of crime. Stanford University Press, Stanford

    Google Scholar 

  • Gould W (1997) Interquartile and simultaneous-quantile regression. Stata Tech Bull 38:14–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenwood PW, Turner S (1987) Selective incapacitation revisited: why the high- rate offenders are hard to predict. RAND, Santa Monica

    Google Scholar 

  • Guerette RT, Stenius VMK, McGloin JM (2005) Understanding offense specialization and versatility: a reapplication of the rational choice perspective. J Crim Justice 33:77–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanson RK, Harris AJR (2000) Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sexual offense recidivism. Crim Justice Behav 27:6–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hao L, Naiman DQ (2007) Quantile regression. Quantitative applications in the social sciences. Sage, Thousand Oaks

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill A, Habermann N, Berner W, Briken P (2007) Psychiatric disorders in single and multiple sexual murderers. Psychopathology 40:22–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill A, Habermann N, Klusmann D, Berner W, Briken P (2008) Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators. Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol 52:5–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirschi T, Gottfredson MR (eds) (1994) The generality of deviance. Transaction, New Brunswick

    Google Scholar 

  • Hochstetler A, DeLisi M, Puhrmann AM (2007) Toward an integrated model of offending frequency: a replication study. Justice Q 24:582–599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jessor R, Jessor SL (1977) Problem behavior and psychological development: a longitudinal study of youth. Academic, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Koenker R, Bassett G (1978) Regression quantiles. Econometrica 46:33–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koenker R, Hallock KF (2001) Quantile regression. J Econ Perspect 15:143–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindberg N, Holi MM, Tani P, Virkkunen M (2005) Looking for pyromania: characteristics of a consecutive sample of Finnish male criminal with histories of recidivist fire-setting between 1973 and 1993. BMC Psychiatry 5:47

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lussier P (2005) The criminal activity of sexual offenders in adulthood: revisiting the specialization debate. Sex Abuse J Res Treat 17:269–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lussier P, LeBlanc M, Proulx J (2005a) The generality of criminal behavior: a confirmatory factor analysis of the criminal activity of sex offenders in adulthood. J Crim Justice 33:177–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lussier P, Proulx J, LeBlanc M (2005b) Criminal propensity, deviant sexual interests and criminal activity of sexual aggressors against women: a comparison of explanatory models. Criminology 43:249–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lynam DR, Piquero AR, Moffitt TE (2004) Specialization and the propensity to violence: support from self-reports but not official records. J Contemp Crim Justice 20:215–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mazerolle P, Brame R, Paternoster R, Piquero A, Dean C (2000) Onset age, persistence, and offending versatility: comparisons across gender. Criminology 38:1143–1172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGloin JM, Sullivan CJ, Piquero AR, Pratt TC (2007) Local life circumstances and offending specialization/versatility: comparing opportunity and propensity models. J Res Crime Delinq 44:321–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGloin JM, Sullivan CJ, Piquero AR (2009) Aggregating to versatility? Transitions among offender types in the short term. Br J Criminol 49:243–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miethe TD, Olson J, Mitchell O (2006) Specialization and persistence in the arrest histories of sex offenders: a comparative analysis of alternative measures and offense types. J Res Crime Delinq 43:204–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller SJ, Dinitz S, Conrad JP (1982) Careers of the violent. D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington

    Google Scholar 

  • Moffitt TE, Krueger RF, Caspi A, Fagan J (2000) Partner abuse and general crime: how are they the same? How are they different? Criminology 38:199–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osgood DW, Schreck CJ (2007) A new method for studying the extent, stability, and predictors of individual specialization in violence. Criminology 45:273–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paternoster R, Brame R (1998) The structural similarity of processes generating criminal and analogous behaviors. Criminology 36:633–666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paternoster R, Brame R, Piquero A, Mazerolle P, Dean CW (1998) The forward specialization coefficient: distributional properties and subgroup differences. J Quant Criminol 14:133–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piper ES (1985) Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. J Quant Criminol 1:319–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piquero A (2000) Frequency, specialization, and violence in offending careers. J Res Crime Delinq 37:392–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piquero AR, Buka SL (2002) Linking juvenile and adult patterns of criminal activity in the Providence cohort of the National Collaborative Perinatal Project. J Crim Justice 30:259–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piquero A, Paternoster R, Mazerolle P, Brame R, Dean CW (1999) Onset age and offense specialization. J Res Crime Delinq 36:275–299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piquero AR, Farrington DP, Blumstein A (2007) Key issues in criminal career research: new analyses of the Cambridge study in delinquent development. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Robertiello G, Terry KJ (2007) Can we profile sex offenders? A review of sex offender typologies. Aggress Violent Behav 12:508–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowe DC, Osgood DW, Nicewander WA (1990) A latent trait approach to unifying criminal careers. Criminology 28:237–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sampson RJ, Laub JH (1993) Crime in the making: pathways and turning points through the life course. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwaner SL (1998) Patterns of violent specialization: predictors of recidivism for a cohort of parolees. Am J Crim Justice 23:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwaner SL (2000) Burglary specialization within a parole cohort: criminal lifestyle or moonlighting? J Crime Justice 23:95–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Shover N (1996) Great pretenders: pursuits and careers of persistent thieves. Westview, Boulder

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon LMJ (1999) Are the worst offenders the least reliable? Stud Crime Crime Prevent 8:210–224

    Google Scholar 

  • Soothill K, Francis B, Liu J (2008) Does serious offending lead to homicide? Exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime. Br J Criminol 48:522–537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steffensmeier DJ, Ulmer JT (2005) Confessions of a dying thief: understanding criminal careers and illegal enterprise. Transaction, New Brunswick

    Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan CJ, McGloin JM, Pratt TC, Piquero AR (2006) Rethinking the “norm” of offender generality: investigating specialization in the short-term. Criminology 44:199–234

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sullivan CJ, McGloin JM, Ray JV, Caudy MS (2009) Detecting specialization in offending: comparing analytic approaches. J Quant Criminol 25:419–441

    Google Scholar 

  • Tunnell KD (2006) Living off crime, 2nd edn. Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham

    Google Scholar 

  • van Wijk A, Loeber R, Vermeiren R, Pardini D, Bullens R, Doreleijers T (2005a) Violent juvenile sex offenders compared with violent juvenile nonsex offenders: explorative findings from the Pittsburgh Youth Study. Sex Abuse J Res Treat 17:333–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Wijk A, van Horn J, Bullens R, Bijleveld C, Doreleijers T (2005b) Juvenile sex offenders: a group on its own? Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol 49:25–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vandiver DM (2006) A prospective analysis of juvenile male sex offenders: characteristics and recidivism rates as adults. J Interpers Violence 21:673–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaughn MG, DeLisi M, Beaver KM, Howard MO (2008) Toward a quantitative typology of burglars: a latent profile analysis of career offenders. J Forensic Sci 53:1387–1392

    Google Scholar 

  • Vaughn MG, DeLisi M, Beaver KM, Howard MO (2009) Multiple murder and criminal careers: a latent class analysis of multiple homicide offenders. Forensic Sci Int 183:67–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veneziano C, Veneziano L (2002) Adolescent sex offenders: a review of the literature. Trauma Violence Abuse 3:247–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisburd D, Chayet EF, Waring EJ (1990) White-collar crime and criminal careers: some preliminary findings. Crime Delinq 36:342–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams RK, Arnold BL (2002) Offense specialization among serious habitual juvenile offenders in a Canadian city during the early stages of criminal careers. Int Crim Justice Rev 12:1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolfgang ME, Figlio RM, Sellin T (1972) Delinquency in a birth cohort. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright KA, Pratt TC, DeLisi M (2008) Examining offending specialization in a sample of male multiple homicide offenders. Homicide Stud 12:381–398

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Iowa State University, 203A East Hall, Ames, IA, 50011-1070, USA

    Matt DeLisi

  2. College of Criminology and CJ, Florida State University, 634 West Call Street, Hecht House, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-1127, USA

    Kevin M. Beaver

  3. School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Arizona State University, 411 N. Central Ave., Suite 600, Phoenix, AZ, 85004-0685, USA

    Kevin A. Wright

  4. School of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati, 600 Dyer Hall, Cincinnati, OH, 45221-0389, USA

    John Paul Wright

  5. School of Social Work, Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Department of Public Policy Studies, Saint Louis University, Tegeler Hall, 3550 Lindell Boulevard, St. Louis, MO, 63103, USA

    Michael G. Vaughn

  6. Department of Criminal Justice, University of North Texas, 1155 Union Circle #305130, Denton, TX, 76203-5017, USA

    Chad R. Trulson

Authors
  1. Matt DeLisi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kevin M. Beaver
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kevin A. Wright
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. John Paul Wright
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Michael G. Vaughn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Chad R. Trulson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Matt DeLisi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

DeLisi, M., Beaver, K.M., Wright, K.A. et al. Criminal Specialization Revisited: A Simultaneous Quantile Regression Approach. Am J Crim Just 36, 73–92 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-010-9083-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-010-9083-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation