Perspectives for Population Ageing in the Russian North

Abstract

The Arctic is fastly growing in importance as a real-time test area in which an “unprecedented combination of rapid and stressful changes involving both environmental forces and socioeconomic pressures associated with globalization” (AHDR 2004) as well as specific features such as a harsh physical environment, social circumstances, and cultural diversity immensely affect and shape routes for development of regional population structures and population ageing in particular. Among the eight Arctic countries, Russia is noticeably different in the general development route and particularly in relation to demographic transition. Many attempts to improve the demographic situation have been sought, but as to population ageing, only few territorial jurisdictions e.g. Saratov, Vladimir, Moscow and Leningrad regions have recently detailed their own action plans in response to population ageing. These efforts based on scientific ground should be considerably increased among all the 83 regions of Russia and especially in the Russian North, where ageing-specific regional policies have been neglected. This article is intended to provide an evidence platform in the analysis of population ageing for several northern regions of Russia with special reference to contributing driving forces behind the changing population structure such as migration, fertility, mortality and other demographics. The global context of the Arctic and constant reference to the overall situation in Russia will allow better understanding of the patterns of population ageing in the studied area of the Russian North. We hypothesized one type of transition towards intensification of population ageing over recent decades and rather similar characteristics for the rates and dynamics of population ageing in the studied eight provinces of the Russian North. Two different methodologies (‘conventional’ and ‘prospective’) based on chronological and prospective age concepts have been applied to measure population ageing. They show methodologically based variations in ageing dynamics: a ‘greying’ trend among most of the regions and an opposite ‘rejuvenation’ phenomenon in a few of them using prospective metrics. In the discussion we highlight how the ageing process has been affected by historical and recent demographic and socio-economical inequalities and discuss similarities and differences across the northern territories of the country. The results might be of use for further research and for local and federal decision-makers in devising and formulating responses to ageing for the territories of the Russian North.