Abstract
Northern England faces important demographic challenges over the next 25 years: population ageing, a more ethnically diverse society, moderate demographic growth but with large differences between most and least successful localities. We examine past and future demographic changes in Northern England and their effect on population health, labour force size and household numbers, drawing out implications for public policy. We use new projections for England’s local authority (LA) populations by ethnicity from 2001 to 2036. The population of Northern England will grow between 8 % and 12 %, depending on projection scenario. So, aggregate demand for goods and services in Northern England will continue to increase. The population will experience, however, rising old age dependency ratios. To maintain current ratios, pension entitlement age will need to increase to 70 by 2036 rather than the 68 planned in the 2011 Pension Act. Population ageing will impact numbers with limiting long term illness, which will increase more than the population as a whole because the age structure will become older. A decrease in the labour force will occur as the baby boomers retire, if labour force participation rates remain constant. Action needs to be taken to encourage employers to introduce flexible transitions to retirement that reward older workers who wish to continue in work. We also project the numbers of households, which increase a little faster than the population because ageing shifts the population towards older ages where households are smaller.
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Notes
The populations used in this paper differ from the more recent results in the ETHPOP database, which reflect some corrections in the way internal migration probabilities were estimated.
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Acknowledgments
The research reported in the paper was funded by a grant from ONE North East on behalf of the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills, the Department of Communities and Local Government and the Department of Work and Pensions to the Northern Eight Research Universities Partnership. The project was guided by an Advisory Board of central government and local stakeholders.
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Rees, P., Zuo, C., Wohland, P. et al. The Implications of Ageing and Migration for the Future Population, Health, Labour Force and Households of Northern England. Appl. Spatial Analysis 6, 93–122 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9086-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9086-7