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Future Young Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement: National Projections from 2010 to 2030

  • Symposium: ABJS Carl T. Brighton Workshop on Health Policy Issues in Orthopaedic Surgery
  • Published:
Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research®

Abstract

Previous projections of total joint replacement (TJR) volume have not quantified demand for TJR surgery in young patients (< 65 years old). We developed projections for demand of TJR for the young patient population in the United States. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify primary and revision TJRs between 1993 and 2006, as a function of age, gender, race, and census region. Surgery prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression, allowing for different rates for each population subgroup over time. If the historical growth trajectory of joint replacement surgeries continues, demand for primary THA and TKA among patients less than 65 years old was projected to exceed 50% of THA and TKA patients of all ages by 2011 and 2016, respectively. Patients less than 65 years old were projected to exceed 50% of the revision TKA patient population by 2011. This study underscores the major contribution that young patients may play in the future demand for primary and revision TJR surgery.

Level of Evidence: Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Exponent, Inc., 3401 Market St, Suite 300, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA

    Steven M. Kurtz PhD, Edmund Lau MS, Kevin Ong PhD & Ke Zhao MA, MS

  2. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Michael Kelly MD & Kevin J. Bozic MD, MBA

Authors
  1. Steven M. Kurtz PhD
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  2. Edmund Lau MS
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  3. Kevin Ong PhD
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  4. Ke Zhao MA, MS
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  5. Michael Kelly MD
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  6. Kevin J. Bozic MD, MBA
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kevin Ong PhD.

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Each author certifies that he or she has no commercial associations (eg, consultancies, stock ownership, equity interest, patent/licensing arrangements, etc) that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article.

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Kurtz, S.M., Lau, E., Ong, K. et al. Future Young Patient Demand for Primary and Revision Joint Replacement: National Projections from 2010 to 2030. Clin Orthop Relat Res 467, 2606–2612 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11999-009-0834-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11999-009-0834-6

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