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Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis: Part of the Timeline Toolkit for Criminal Investigation

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Abstract

Solving serious crimes such as sexual assault, rape, and murder takes a considerable amount of investigation time. Despite efforts, many crimes may be unsolved, and go ‘cold’. These cases are typically extensive and reviewing the material can be prohibitively time consuming. The current manuscript proposes the combination of two methods, or ‘tools’, for timeline analyses: Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis (BSA). Matrix Forecasting provides a clear and comprehensive approach to outlining predictions investigators make, the rationale underlying these predictions, the accuracy, and the evidence. Matrix Forecasting also outlines areas for future investigation, for example, if new technology becomes available or new test results are returned. The BSA provides a statistical, visual pathway map that outlines the proposed or proven steps in a crime. The combination of these methods provides a new approach to mapping criminal investigations and has been effectively used in several real-world cold case reviews. To illustrate the benefits of this combined approach, a real-world example, the Jeffrey MacDonald, aka Green Beret Killer case, will be analysed using Matrix Forecasting and BSA to show the benefits of the method in terms of providing a quick-guide for future review and solvability factors.

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Notes

  1. Best practice is to seek agreement between multiple coders and experts involved in the case.

  2. We appreciate that the case is now legally ‘solved’ and no longer cold; however, it took 9 years before a conviction was made, and so for the purposes of this paper it stands as a useful example.

  3. Details of the injuries sustained to the Macdonald family have been omitted, here, for the sake of not wanting to sensationalise the crime or put-off readers who would like to learn the method without reading the details of a most horrific crime.

  4. In reality, the property has been re-built and no evidence remains; however, within the 9 years before Jeffrey was sentenced, such testing could have been conducted. Similarly, in several current cold cases, there are nodes in the sequence chain that have multiple possibilities for further testing. The argument here is a case with many more open links for further testing are likely more solvable than those showing only ‘dead-ends’ (i.e. no fresh routes for testing or investigation).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Researchers in Behavior Sequence Analysis (ReBSA), Nottingham, UK

    D. A. Keatley & D. D. Clarke

  2. School of Law, Murdoch University, Perth, 6150, Australia

    D. A. Keatley

  3. School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, NG72RD, Nottingham, UK

    D. D. Clarke

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  1. D. A. Keatley
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  2. D. D. Clarke
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Correspondence to D. A. Keatley.

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Keatley, D.A., Clarke, D.D. Matrix Forecasting and Behaviour Sequence Analysis: Part of the Timeline Toolkit for Criminal Investigation. J Police Crim Psych 37, 1–8 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11896-020-09367-1

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