Abstract
The objective of this study is to provide a perspective on the extremes of sea-level variability and predictability for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) on seasonal time-scales. Based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model, the L-moments method has been used to estimate the model parameters. The bootstrap method has been used to define the exceedance probability level of upper and lower bounds of the return periods at the 90% confidence interval. On the basis of these return calculations and expected extremes of high sea level, the seasonal maxima of sea level and the varying likelihood of extreme events have been estimated. For analyzing the predictability of the extremes of sea-level, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) statistical model has been developed. Findings reveal that there is seasonal climatology of extreme events in the vicinity of USAPI that are variable on temporal and spatial scales. Some of the islands (Yap and Saipan) display considerably higher seasonal extremes than the others for 20 to 100 year return periods because of typhoon-related storm surges. These surges are likely to cause huge tidal large sea-level inundations and increased erosion to low-lying atolls/islands and result in considerable damage to roads, harbors, unstable sandy beaches, and other major infrastructures. Finally, the need for evaluating the extreme events and associated typhoons from a regional perspective has been stressed for coastal hazard management decision analyses in the USAPI.
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Acknowledgments
This project was funded by cooperative agreement NA17RJ1230 between the Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subdivisions. This is SOEST contribution 6573.
Grateful acknowledgements are expressed to three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. We express our gratitude to Dr. Mark Merrifield and Ms. Shikiko Nakahara of the University of Hawaii Sea Level center for providing valuable comments on sea level data. Also, grateful acknowledgements are due to other PEAC colleagues Mr. James Weyman, Ms. Eileen Shea, Dr. Mike Hamnett, Mr. Charles Chip Guard, Dr. Mark Lander, Dr. Cheryl Anderson, Julie Earp, and Sarah Duncan. Finally, thanks are also due to Ms. Diane Henderson and Nancy Hulbirt for proof editing.
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Chowdhury, M.R., Chu, PS., Zhao, X. et al. Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses. J Coast Conserv 14, 53–62 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-010-0086-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-010-0086-3