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Cardiovascular disease burden in acute public hospitals in Ireland: estimates for 2021 and 2031

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Abstract

Background

Ireland is undergoing a demographic shift to a higher proportion of older people in the population. It is expected that this demographic shift will significantly increase the burden of care on an already overstretched acute hospitals system.

Aim

This study was conducted to estimate the future burden of care on acute public hospitals pertaining to ‘diseases of the circulatory system’ and ‘procedures on cardiovascular system’ in Ireland using Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) data for 2006 and population projections for 2021 and 2031.

Methods

Age-specific rates derived from HIPE data for 2006 and census figures for the same year were applied to population projections for 2021 and 2031 to get case number estimates in those years.

Results

The number of discharges with a primary diagnosis of diseases of the circulatory system is estimated to increase by 51 % by 2021 and 97 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 65 % by 2021 and 133 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers. The number of procedures performed is estimated to increase by 47 % by 2021 and 82 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case numbers are estimated to increase by 63 % by 2021 and 120 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers.

Conclusion

The results reflect the aging of the Irish population. The expected increases in case numbers will pose significant burden on acute public hospitals and the cost of providing care.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the Economic and Social Research Institute (www.esri.ie) for providing data from the Hospital Inpatient Enquiry.

Conflict of interest

None declared.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health Physiotherapy and Population Science, University College Dublin, Woodview House, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland

    V. O. Alonge, A. Drummond & M. Codd

  2. Centre for Support and Training in Analysis and Research, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

    T. Grant

  3. Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland

    D. Sugrue

Authors
  1. V. O. Alonge
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  2. T. Grant
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  3. A. Drummond
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  4. D. Sugrue
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  5. M. Codd
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. O. Alonge.

Appendices

Appendix: What is already known

The population of Ireland is ageing and significant increases are expected in the prevalence of chronic diseases.

What this paper adds

The number of discharges with a principal diagnosis of diseases of the circulatory system is estimated to increase by a half (51 %) by 2021 and almost doubled (97 %) by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case number is estimated to increase by 65 % by 2021 and 133 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. The number of procedures on the cardiovascular system is estimated to increase by 47 % by 2021 and 82 % by 2031 relative to 2006 figures. For people aged 65+ years, case number for procedures on the cardiovascular system is estimated to increase by 63 % by 2021 and 120 % by 2031 relative to 2006 case numbers.

Study limitations

The projection model is based on the ASR from one time point (2006); it excluded factors such as population prevalence of disease risk factors, health technology, clinical practice and hospitals admission policies which are likely to change in the future.

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Alonge, V.O., Grant, T., Drummond, A. et al. Cardiovascular disease burden in acute public hospitals in Ireland: estimates for 2021 and 2031. Ir J Med Sci 182, 245–253 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11845-012-0869-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11845-012-0869-7

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