Seismological method for prediction of areal rockbursts in deep mine with seismic source mechanism and unstable failure theory

Abstract

The research on the rock burst prediction was made on the basis of seismology, rock mechanics and the data from Dongguashan Copper Mine (DCM), the deepest metal mine in China. The seismic responses to mining in DCM were investigated through the analyses of the spatio-temporal distribution of hypocenters, apparent stress and displacement of seismic events, and the process of the generation of hazardous seismicity in DCM was studied in the framework of the theory of asperity in the seismic source mechanism. A method of locating areas with hazardous seismicity and a conceptual model of hazardous seismic nucleation in DCM were proposed. A criterion of rockburst prediction was analyzed theoretically in the framework of unstable failure theories, and consequently, the rate of change in the ratio of the seismic stiffness of rock in a seismic nucleation area to that in surrounding area, dS/dt, is defined as an index of the rockburst prediction. The possibility of a rockburst will increase if dS/dt>0, and the possibility of rock burst will decrease if dS/dt<0. The correctness of these methods is demonstrated by analyses of rock failure cases in DCM.